New polls show Floridians are ready to elect Donald Trump for president and Rick Scott for re-election to the Senate, but in a somewhat surprising dichotomy, half of Republicans surveyed support marijuana legalization and abortion rights.
A University of North Florida poll released Tuesday found the former president has a seven-point lead in the two-way race against Kamala Harris in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 1 million.
Meanwhile, a poll of 774 Florida voters showed Sen. Rick Scott leading Democrat Debbie Mucarsel Powell, 47% to 43%.
Independent support is key in both races, given that the major party candidates have roughly equal support within their respective parties: Trump is +12 with them and Scott is +2, and Florida Democrats, who are struggling with Mucarsel-Powell, will be counting on the results as a sign of hope.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple of points lead over Rick Scott, who is only four points ahead, which is within the poll’s margin of error,” said poll director Dr Michael Binder.
“Scott has a history of narrow wins in statewide elections in Florida and this could be another close race for him in a state that has become significantly more Republican over the past six years,” Binder said.
Ironically, however, this same electorate appears willing to vote against the Republican norm on some key issues: The numbers suggest that amendments to legalize marijuana and repeal recently imposed abortion restrictions (currently a six-week ban) would pass with the 60% needed.
Amendment 3 (“Adult Personal Use of Marijuana”) received 64% support, 31% opposition, and 5% no response. If passed, it would allow Floridians to possess three ounces at a time (or, in Gov. Ron DeSantis’ words, “80 joints”).
Amendment 4 (“An amendment to limit government interference with abortion”) received support from 69% of voters, with 23% opposed and the rest unsure.
These amendments have been roundly condemned by every Republican leader in the state who was willing to comment publicly, highlighting the rift between elected officials and their constituents.
Fifty percent of Republicans want to legalize marijuana, and 53% want to eliminate abortion restrictions imposed by the Republican-controlled Legislature.
And as expected, majorities of independents and Democrats in the state support the amendment.
Among independent voters, 63% support marijuana and 71% support the abortion bill, while 79% of Democrats are pro-marijuana and 87% want to see Tallahassee’s abortion ban overturned.
Binder noted that caveats apply to moving forward with the amendment.
Regarding the marijuana bill, he said, “it’s not yet clear how much money will be put into the campaign against this amendment,” even as ads in support of the amendment have been running heavily on Florida television for weeks.
And on the abortion vote, Binder warned that the final numbers could be lowered by “the highly controversial fiscal impact statement recently added to the ballot summary.” The statement argues that increased abortions could have an “adverse impact” on revenues and that “uncertainty” prevails about litigation costs and “whether the proposed amendment would require states to subsidize abortion with public funds.”
And in fact, all that would be needed to kill these amendments would be for the vote to fall below 60%, a threshold set by the Florida Legislature.
But as of now, it appears Florida voters may re-elect Republicans to two highly important offices while ignoring Republican priorities.
