A Florida abortion protection referendum is on its way to victory, garnering more voter support than either Vice President Kamala Harris or Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell, according to a new poll.
According to a poll conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida, 69 percent of respondents said they would vote for Amendment 4, which would ban laws that restrict or prohibit abortion until the fetus is viable.
A constitutional amendment in Florida requires 60 percent of the vote to become law.
“Neither side has really taken off on this issue yet,” PORL Dean and Political Science Professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Given the highly contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot outline, I expect support for this amendment to wane by November.”
The amendment has faced opposition from state officials, even though the Florida Supreme Court gave the green light to put it on the ballot in May. Most recently, the amendment’s backers, Floridians for Freedom, challenged it as a politically biased financial impact statement. The state Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the challenge as soon as possible.
The poll also showed that an amendment to legalize recreational marijuana has enough support to pass, with 64% of respondents backing it.
The poll of 774 Floridians who said they will definitely or probably vote in the next election was conducted July 24-July 27. The overall sampling margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
If the presidential election were held today, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for former President Donald Trump, while 42 percent said they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
4% said they would vote for another candidate, and 6% were undecided or refused to answer.
The survey is the first to compare Trump with Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, in Florida.
Respondents were also asked about the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Mucarsel-Powell (D). In the poll, 47% said they would vote for Scott, while 43% said they would support Mucarsel-Powell.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a lead over Rick Scott by a few points, while Scott has a slight lead of just four points, which is within the poll’s margin of error,” Binder said. “Scott has a history of narrow statewide wins in Florida, and this could be another close race for Scott in a state that has become significantly more Republican over the past six years.”
The polling gap between the candidates and the amendment illustrates why abortion advocates have sought to separate the issue from party politics, fearing their efforts will fail.
Among supporters of the abortion amendment, 53% identify as Republicans and 51% said they voted for Trump in 2020. There are roughly 900,000 more registered Republican voters in Florida than Democrats.
