I am going to expose almost everything you have ever been told about how elections work and what you need to do to win elections, including what you have been told by much of the so-called conservative media. Let’s start with the Republican and Black vote over the last 40 years.
Below is the percentage of black voters in the total electorate and the percentage of black voters who voted Republican.
These numbers are all very similar, regardless of the style of the Republican candidate. In 2016, Trump won 8% of the black vote on his way to victory, then convinced Jared Kushner to empty the prisons through “criminal justice reform.” In return, Trump won 12% of the black vote, but lost in 2020, failing to beat the share of the black vote that Bob Dole got from black voters in 1996, despite the highest black turnout in history.
Now, ask yourself whether the Republican media’s level of obsession with this segment of the American electorate is worth it.
The Republican Party has a problem with white voters, but giving up on the culture wars and letting a black, bisexual ex-stripper speak at the Republican National Convention isn’t going to solve it.
So, Steve, what should we fixate on instead? I’m glad you asked, because the problem with the Republican Party is actually with white voters. I couldn’t find any reliable exit poll data before 2000, so let’s look at the white female vote for the last 20 years.
John McCain Winner White women beat Barack Obama by six points in 2008, after which at least 4 million white voters, many of them women, did not vote in 2012 after voting four years earlier. Had Mitt Romney replicated McCain’s turnout, he would have beaten Obama despite record black voter turnout.
In 2016, Donald Trump won white women’s support 52% to 48%, despite facing off against Hillary Clinton, who was seeking to become the first female president in American history. Four years later, if Trump had won the white female vote at the same rate as McCain, he would not only have been re-elected, but would likely have won the popular vote.
So let’s look at the votes of married white people since 2000.
George W. Bush won 57% of the married vote and 63% of the overall electorate in 2004, a record high. When that dropped to 60% four years later, McCain was defeated. Still beating Obama and his married friends.
From 2016 to 2020, Trump gained one percentage point among married voters, but that demographic’s overall voter turnout fell by three percentage points, leading to his election defeat. If Trump had received the same level of support from married voters in 2020 as Mitt Romney did in 2012, he would likely have completed his second term by now.
Want to get hyped right now? Let’s rank each state by black population and see how lost we are in our election strategy.
Hold on a second, so you’re saying that most of the states with the largest black populations (7 out of 10) are never contested and are either completely red or blue? Of those 10, only 3 are considered battleground states?
So I ask again whether these numbers are consistent with the level of obsession the conservative media has with how to win elections.
They don’t.
So, if you’re as tired of losing as I am, here are some key takeaways:
- Of the 13 states with the highest percentage of black voters, six are reliably Republican states that have not been lost by the Republicans since before 1980.
- Only 7.22% of California’s population is black. In fact, Kansas has a higher percentage of black residents than California. But California is considered the most Democratic state in the United States. So why are we always so desperate to prove we’re not racist when the numbers show that it doesn’t mean anything? There’s no good answer.
- Only 12 states in the United States have a Hispanic population over 15%. Of those, only four are considered swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. The remaining 11 states have never changed party in a presidential election this century. So why are we considering pardons in light of this information? Again, the answer is only bad.
Let’s face it, the Republican Party has a problem with white voters, and it’s not going to be solved by just giving up on the culture wars and having a black, bisexual ex-stripper speak at the Republican National Convention. It doesn’t work that way. It doesn’t do anything to help the Democratic Party’s grip on the minority vote, and it just alienates disgruntled white voters who just want their kids protected from illegal immigrants and groomers. Small things like that.
Many in the industry don’t know this data and are probably following the Fox News narrative, but that narrative is wrong and explains a lot about why and how we lose: Democrats discriminate against white voters not because they don’t matter, but because white voters don’t matter. do Problem! Democrats are guilt-tripping white voters into voting for them, and guilt-tripping conservative media and strategists into chasing the DEI fantasy bullshit.
I insist on getting off that ride because I want to win before the lights go out completely.
