Carlos Sainz Jr.’s bottle has been uncorked
Now we wait to see how the moment affects the rest of the F1 grid.
On the first day of the annual summer break, Sainz announced his long-awaited decision for the 2025 F1 season, revealing that he has signed a “multi-year” contract to drive for Williams from next season. The decision, which many other drivers have pointed to as a major stumbling block in deciding the remainder of the 2025 driver line-up, may see the remainder of the grid finally decided in the coming weeks.
There are currently four seats open: alongside Yuki Tsunoda at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team, alongside Pierre Gasly at Alpine, alongside Nico Hulkenberg at Sauber/Audi and, perhaps the most coveted of all, the Mercedes seat alongside George Russell.
(Yes, as always, there are rumours that further movement is on the way at Red Bull. One of the team’s key figures, Dr Helmut Marko, added fuel to the fire recently when he mentioned that the 2025 line-up will be “reshuffled” following the announcement that both Sergio Pérez and Daniel Ricciardo will remain with Red Bull and VCARB for the remainder of this season. But those rumours are just that, rumours, so let’s set them aside for now.)
How will the final four seats be filled? Below are the options and predictions for each seat.
Takayama
Main contenders: Mick Schumacher, Jack Doohan
Prediction: Jack Doohan
Alpine had named their next team principal earlier this week, announcing that Oliver Oakes would take up the role after the summer break and that Bruno Famin would leave the role to focus on overseeing the remainder of Renault’s motorsport program.
The team has already announced that Pierre Gasly will return next year on a new “multi-year” contract, but who will be his teammate? Alpine had made a strong push for Sainz, but with the Spaniard signing with Williams, the next two contenders are former Haas full-time driver Mick Schumacher, who now races for Alpine in the World Endurance Championship, and current reserve driver Jack Doohan.
Both have taken part in a series of Alpine test sessions in recent weeks and, given Oakes’ appointment this week, a junior driver seems appropriate. But which young driver will be selected? Both have their strengths (Schumacher’s grid experience, Doohan’s time as a team reserve and in the simulator) but if we had to guess, Doohan might have the edge.
Moreover, reports in the Italian media over the past few days have suggested the deal is a done deal, but nothing is final until the paperwork is signed.
Mercedes
Main contenders: Valtteri Bottas, Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Firstly, Max Verstappen isn’t on the list, and for good reason: Toto Wolff has spoken on multiple occasions about Verstappen being an option for Mercedes, subtly provoking Red Bull team principal Christian Horner in the process, but Verstappen’s repeated references to a long-term contract with Red Bull and his denials of a move suggest he’s here to stay for the long haul.
That being said, Mercedes isNext up is VerstappenLooking ahead to 2025, Mercedes said: “Andrea Kimi Antonelli got off to a slow start to his F2 season but has been on a roll in recent weeks, taking his first F2 win in a sprint race at Silverstone and then his first F2 feature race win at the Hungaroring. If Mercedes want to slow Antonelli down they could bring back Valtteri Bottas, but there are signs that the young prodigy is showing promise.
Sauber
Main candidates: Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu
Prediction: Valtteri Bottas
When Ferrari announced that Lewis Hamilton would leave Mercedes for the Scuderia in 2025, many immediately assumed that this paved the way for Sainz to move to Sauber before the team becomes Audi’s works team in 2026.
However, Sainz’s move to Williams means that a place remains at Sauber alongside Nico Hulkenberg, who is set to move to Germany-based Audi.
Current Sauber drivers Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas seem the most likely candidates, but the recent news that Jonathan Wheatley will join Audi as team principal after some time off from Red Bull could pave the way for a maverick driver in VCARB.
But barring that, the veteran seems the safer option between Zhou and Bottas, and his experience could provide vital feedback as Sauber considers new rules for 2026 and a move to Audi.
VCARB
Main contenders: Liam Lawson, Daniel Ricciardo
Prediction: Liam Lawson
From where I stand, this might be the hardest to predict.
Those obsessed with the idea of ”palace intrigue” at Red Bull may point to how this decision is handled as evidence of whether Marko or Horner has the upper hand at the team, because media comments from both men suggest that each has a preference.
However, what could give Liam Lawson an edge is the fear of missing out on the next young, talented driver in the organisation. Marko’s recent comments about the Red Bull board pressing to revert VCARB to “junior team” status and the associated emphasis on driver development could push the team in that direction. Daniel Ricciardo remains one of the most talented drivers on the grid and arguably one of the most marketable, but selecting Lawson would be a move with an eye on the future.
He will likely spend his future with Verstappen at Red Bull.
