Vice President Harris has a chance to succeed where Hillary Clinton failed: by defeating former President Trump and becoming the first female president.
So far, her win rate seems to be around 50%.
Democrats have been excited by Harris’ emergence as the provisional nominee following President Biden’s decision to withdraw on July 21. But Trump is leading Harris in the national polling average and in most battleground states — though by a much smaller margin than he had over Biden.
Some prominent Democratic women are looking ahead to the coming months with a mixture of hope and dread.
Patty Solis Doyle, who served as Clinton’s campaign manager during her first presidential run in 2008, said she believes Harris has some advantages the former senator did not enjoy.
Solis Doyle noted that even in 2008, Clinton “had been on the national political stage for more than a decade. She was a well-known figure and a very divisive figure. You either love Hillary Clinton or you hate her, and that was settled.”
“I don’t carry the same burden. I’ve been on the national stage before, but for a much shorter period of time,” Harris said.
Still, when asked if Harris would have to overcome voter prejudice simply because she is a woman, Solis Doyle replied: “Absolutely..”
“We’ve come a long way but there’s still work to do. It’s 2024 and this country hasn’t elected a woman president. It’s astonishing,” she said.
Some agree that Harris, or any female candidate, would be at a particular advantage in the race against Trump.
Some are demographic-based, such as a presumed greater appeal to female voters, and others are issue-based, such as the idea that Harris could bring a sharper point to the Democratic debate over reproductive rights.
And some of that is specific to Trump: the sense that as a Black woman and former prosecutor, she is especially well-suited to take on a Republican candidate who was found liable for sexually abusing the author E. Jean Carroll in a civil lawsuit last year and who has a history of making disrespectful comments about prominent women such as Rosie O’Donnell and Megyn Kelly.
But there are fears that this may still discourage some voters from voting for a female president again.
Women hold many of the most powerful positions in politics, but the top spot has not always been available to women, and Clinton is not alone in the failure of some prominent female candidates to live up to expectations.
Harris herself and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) both fell into this category during the 2020 Democratic primary.
Outside observers are bracing for a vicious campaign either way.
“I think the rhetoric on campaign trails can get very ugly around gender and race,” said Christy Schiller, a professor of communications at Indiana University Indianapolis and author of the 2013 book on political culture, “A Woman President.”
Harris’ nomination “is a huge opportunity, but it’s also not a safe choice,” said Democratic strategist Julie Rosinski. “The United States remains a deeply misogynistic country. Unlike the UK, India and Pakistan, the United States has never had a woman lead the country.”
Of course, Republicans and conservatives object to Harris’ entire framing of the gender issue.
They argue that such a focus amounts to identity politics and is unrelated to her ability to perform her job.
Some Republicans have accused Harris of being a “DEI hire” — a reference to diversity, equity and inclusion programs — aimed at creating the impression that the vice president’s race and gender are helping, rather than hindering, her career.
Trump appeared to make a similar claim during an onstage interview at the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago on Wednesday, when he falsely claimed that Harris only embraced her black identity in recent years, or, in his words, “just happened to be black.”
“Race and gender have absolutely nothing to do with why Kamala Harris is the most unpopular vice president in history,” Caroline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national spokesperson, said in the column. “Kamala bungled her job as border secretary, supported all of Joe Biden’s disastrous policies, and lied to the American people about Biden’s declining cognitive ability. She’s weak, dishonest, and dangerously liberal.”
Leavitt also argued that “the negative media portrayal of President Trump and his treatment of women is completely false. President Trump is beloved by millions of women across the country, and those who know him personally, including myself, would say he is supportive, generous and kind.”
On policy, Leavitt argued that Trump’s first term had “lifted” women in the economy, making child care assistance and expanded paid family leave “a top priority of his administration.” In his second term, she said, “President Trump will make America strong, safe, and prosperous again for all women.”
To be sure, the dynamics surrounding women candidates and elections are complex.
For example, exit polls in 2016 showed white women favoring Trump by nine points over Clinton, despite the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape being leaked late in the campaign, while black and Latino women voted overwhelmingly for Clinton.
Even on the subject of abortion, men’s and women’s views are not as dramatically different as is sometimes portrayed.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted in June to mark the two-year anniversary of the Roe v. Wade ruling found that 37 percent of women believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. 43 percent of men think the same.
Democrats, especially women, are hoping that Harris will finally be the person to break the glass ceiling.
But to do so, they will have to overcome a lot of resistance.
This note is a reporting column by Niall Stanage.
