MIAMI – A hurricane watch was issued for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast on Saturday as Tropical Storm No. 4 threatened to bring several inches of rain, strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge.
Much of the state remains under a state of emergency, and officials are urging people to prepare before the weather worsens later this weekend.
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather on Saturday that this will be a multi-faceted disaster.
“The biggest risk is normal water, with widespread heavy rainfall expected across much of Florida and along the southeastern U.S. coast, with localized rainfall totals of up to 15 inches,” he said. “So there’s definitely a significant risk of freshwater flooding and possibly storm surge.”
Heavy tropical rain and gusty winds have already begun moving north across Florida and are expected to continue through Saturday.
The FOX Forecast Center predicts that the disturbance will strengthen into a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the next 36 hours and move northeast toward the Florida Gulf Coast. If the disturbance strengthens and reaches wind speeds of 40 mph, it will be named Debby.
The NHC noted that the storm is moving further west than previously predicted, delaying its landfall time until Monday morning somewhere in Florida’s Big Bend region.
If the storm tracks along the coast, it could make landfall sooner, but if it remains in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico it could strengthen further and potentially reach hurricane strength before making landfall.
Regardless of its name or strength, this storm will dump heavy rain across Florida and cause flash flooding in flood-prone areas.
Wind gusts are also a concern, especially along the Gulf Coast, where wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are expected as the storm makes landfall.
After landfall, the storm will move extremely slowly, bringing prolonged rain, wind and potential coastal flooding into next week.
Who is under a Tropical Cyclone Warning?
A hurricane watch is currently in effect for the Florida coast from Aucilla River west to Indian Pass, with hurricane-force winds of up to 74 mph possible within the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge, including the Dry Tortugas, and the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable.
Additionally, a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge.
As for the storm surge warning, the area north of Aripeka to Aucilla River is under threat, and a storm surge watch is in effect from Bonita Beach north of Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, and from the west side of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.
The NHC noted that the latest forecast, released Saturday morning, does not clearly indicate the storm will reach hurricane strength, but that it could strengthen further just before landfall on Monday.
Storm surge of several feet possible on Florida’s west coast
Tropical storm-force winds are expected to move into warning areas of Southwest Florida late Saturday night through Saturday night, then move north up Florida’s west coast through Sunday.
The NHC warned that parts of Florida’s west coast could see a storm surge of 2 to 5 feet, with the highest storm surge being in the Big Bend area, reaching up to 4 feet in Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
Flood watches remain in effect for all of South Florida, including Miami, until Sunday evening.
Where will the storm go after it makes landfall?
There remains a lot of uncertainty about the fate of the storm, which made landfall on Monday. A weakening steering current is causing the storm to slow down in northern Florida, and that’s where forecast model projections begin to diverge.
Brennan said the weather forecast calls for very slow movement from Monday through Thursday.
“The storm is moving slowly along the southeast coast and there will be a big difference in wind strength depending on whether it is inland or offshore,” he added.
Brennan’s biggest concern is the amount of rainfall.
“Very heavy rainfall is expected for parts of the southeast coast, including Savannah, Hilton Head, Charleston and southern North Carolina,” he said.
Flood danger on Monday stretches from Jacksonville, Florida, to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. These areas are at Level 3 on a four-level flood risk scale.
“This is the area of most concern with the potential for really heavy rainfall,” Brennan said.
