Late last month, I used this space to talk about some storylines to watch in the second half of the 2024 Major League Baseball season. One of the main things I discussed was how the wild card races in both leagues remain tight, especially in the National League, where 12 of 15 teams were in the postseason overall.
Fast forward a few weeks and you could say that number has dropped from 12 to 10 after both the Cubs and Reds got off to strong starts in the second half, but other than that, things are pretty tense. Most of the excitement is due to the fact that the race for the top spot in the National League Wild Card race has suddenly become a lot more interesting.
If you’re doing most of the talking Atlanta Braves If you told fans during spring training that their team would be in the running for a wild card, they probably would have responded, “You mean the division title?” Sure, the Braves were still the favorite to win the NL East this season, but it would have been fair to assume the Phillies were seriously challenging Atlanta when it came to the division title. The Phillies have certainly slowed down from their red-hot start to the season, but at this point they remain the heavy favorite to end Atlanta’s division-winning streak and win their first division title since 2011.
But the Braves have bigger problems than just trying to win the division. Atlanta is now in a battle to make the postseason. The gap between them and the National League wild card has narrowed, and suddenly that chance has dropped nearly 20 points to 67 percent, down from a comfortable lead and an 84 percent chance of winning the wild card on July 11 (according to FanGraphs). They entered Monday just 1 percent ahead of the National League wild card. San Diego Padres Competing for the first wild card spot Arizona Diamondbacks Last game. They were only 1.5 games behind. New York Mets Now they are the ones watching from the outside.
In fact, the Mets did overtake the Braves once after the break, but were quickly overtaken. But it became clear that the Braves were likely going to have to fight big to keep their top Wild Card spot, and maybe even fight for a spot in the postseason. So what happened? Why did this race go from Atlanta being the almost certain favorite to suddenly being a close race where even the Atlanta team lost? Pittsburgh Pirates And that St. Louis Cardinals Will they themselves get a real chance if they play well in baseball?
For the Braves, it comes down to two big issues: injuries and a lack of consistency on offense. The Braves have been blessed with injuries the last few seasons, but they’re not going to have any in 2024. For reference, here’s Atlanta’s lineup for Opening Day:
So, here’s where the Braves stand four months later.
Needless to say, it would have been miraculous for any team to maintain high expectations with so much lineup turnover over the course of a season. So it’s pretty easy to understand how and why a team that had the best lineup of all time last season (at least in the regular season) suddenly became a team that batted .239/.303/.406 with a wRC+ of just 97. The Braves are extremely lucky that their pitching staff has been great this season, because their offense has been middling at best and that’s the only reason they’ve stayed in first place for the time being instead of falling completely to the bottom. Atlanta is 9-10 games above .500 since May. Going 20-9 in May is great. But going 60-51, six games back in the division, and in a tight battle for a wild card spot isn’t great for the team Atlanta was expected to be.
As Atlanta continues to struggle, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are waking up. In fact, San Diego and Arizona are both 8-2 in their past 10 games, firmly establishing themselves in the Wild Card race and making the NL West a little more interesting. Los Angeles Dodgers They’re also losing steam themselves: The Padres and Diamondbacks are both still pretty far behind in their divisions, but are certainly in the running to win the championship.
The deadline deal for AJ Preller was extremely risky, as San Diego’s top baseball executive decided to essentially empty their farm team in order to bolster their bullpen. They’re 100% at this point and are playing like it. The Padres are their best team since the break (11-3), have won five straight series and seem to be on a roll right now. Manager Mike Shildt is pressing the right buttons and utilizing his players in a very solid way. Improved Bullpen This is to shorten the game time.
With a bullpen already stocked with fearsome pitchers like Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada, plus July’s NL Relief Pitcher of the Month Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Brian Hoying, this is a team you don’t want to lose to after six innings. With a potent offense (boasting the sixth-best team wRC+ in baseball), this is also a team you don’t want to see in October if they can keep up this pace and secure a postseason berth.
The same can be said for the Diamondbacks, who have finally found their groove after struggling for much of this season. It’s as if they’re the defending National League champions. Arizona has overcome their injury issues and is slowly but surely working their way back into the playoff conversation. Arizona’s offense is just as strong as San Diego’s (they boast the seventh-best team wRC+ in MLB, just one point behind San Diego in that regard), and it’s certainly a plus that Corbin Carroll seems to be waking up while players like NL MVP candidate Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have all been huge this season. Start the game as follows:
Meanwhile, just outside the wild card bracket, the New York Mets are still in the mix, and they’ve clearly slowed down. A short but magical journey with Grimmas But they’re only 1.5 games out of the Wild Card spot, so they’re not out of the running. The Pittsburgh Pirates are less consistent, but they’re still over .500, just beat the Diamondbacks, and are scheduled to play the Padres on Tuesday, so it’ll be interesting to see if they become serious contenders. The St. Louis Cardinals could reunite at least some of their members and bring back that Devils magic we all remember, and San Francisco Giants There’s still a little bit of life left in the tank after Blake Snell’s no-hitter over the weekend.
There is still plenty of room for play for most teams in the National League. The race for the National League Wild Card looks especially interesting. That is what we expected to see once baseball resumed after the break, and so far, the race is playing out as expected. The success or failure of the aforementioned teams could have a major impact on the postseason race, and it is clear that things are still unclear as we head into the final stages of this season.
