Nicolas Maduro’s blatant Fraud in the July 28 Venezuelan Election That was to be expected: indeed, the highly unpopular Maduro had calculated that with international attention focused on two wars and the upcoming US presidential elections, he could afford to get away with it and manipulate the results to keep the Chavista party in power for another six years.
Before the vote took place, analysts wondered why Maduro Nicaragua PlaybookDaniel Ortega’s government has cancelled the registration of all credible opposition parties and jailed opposition leaders on trumped-up charges.
Indeed, opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado Edmundo Gonzalez and her chosen successor, an octogenarian academic with no political experience, were barred from registering, but by allowing Edmundo Gonzalez to vote, the administration estimated that intimidation tactics and the full commitment of state resources would be enough to produce a favorable outcome.
The spontaneous popular reaction that followed the fraudulent act in the early hours of Monday, July 29, shows that the Socialist elites have gone too far.
Despite the anger and discontent expressed by citizens on the streets, Falling over Regarding the statues of Hugo Chavez around the country, some analysts forecast “Very little is likely to happen,” they say, suggesting that Maduro is certain to remain in power. But their analysis seems to ignore three factors that make the current situation truly different from the past.
First, in past elections, the opposition won unopposed (2018) or by very narrow margins (2013). In both cases, the circumstances made Maduro’s claim of victory at least plausible. This time, Reliable exit polls Opposition candidate Gonzalez beat Maduro 65% to 31%. Opposition figures for 81% of election tabulations show Gonzalez leading 67% to 30%, and the data Available online To be made public to the world.
Second, the opposition is united and disciplined: unlike previous leaders of the opposition coalition, María Corina Machado is competent, trustworthy, and not prone to amateurish improvisation. Victory in the primary election Her election victory last October with more than 90% of the vote lent her leadership unquestioned authority, and she has made great use of it: Her release of tens of thousands of tabulations online for the world to see within 24 hours of the vote was a masterstroke that stunned everyone, even the party’s senior leaders, and took them off guard.
Third, the spontaneous nature of the protests across the country, reminiscent of the Chavista founding myth of 1989, dealt a symbolic but powerful blow to the regime’s narrative. Unlike previous incidents, these protests did not originate in the middle-class neighborhoods or wealthy suburbs of major cities. Rather, it’s Petare.Venezuela and South America’s largest slum. This time, public anger is widespread and unwavering.
Make no mistake, Maduro functions smoothly. Sponsored by Cuba Without coercive measures, a complete surrender or organized rebellion is unlikely. Violent repression by security forces and “colectivos” (government-armed civilian gangs) has already caused chaos and unrest, 11 confirmed dead and Over 900 According to legal NGO Foro Penal, the arrests occurred just days after the protests began.
But by focusing on the obvious, analysts miss the forest for the trees.
Internationally, Maduro has faced strong opposition. On Monday after the election, the Venezuelan government Banished Diplomatic missions from seven Latin American countries. Even prominent people invited by the administration. ObserverFormer Colombian president Ernesto Samper and former Dominican Republic president Leonel Fernandez called on electoral authorities to release the full count.
Apart from the regime’s client states and existing autocracies, very few democracies in the region have recognised the elections. Rejecting ideological alliances The efforts of countries like Colombia and Brazil to legitimize Maduro’s claimed victory underscore just how blatant this injustice is, not to mention Colombia’s particular concern over a new wave of disillusioned Venezuelan migrants.
Given Machado’s ability to manage opposition issues, “golden bridge” negotiations for Maduro and his inner circle may be underway. Success is unlikely due to “oligarchic factionalism” within Chavismo, the regime’s violent crackdown on dissent, and its intention to imprison Machado and González Urrutia. However, as internal and external pressure on regime officials intensifies in the coming weeks, holding on to power may prove more costly than giving it up.
With all eyes on Venezuela, what’s different this time is the leadership of Maria Corina Machado and a population that is tired of decades of misrule. While the chances of a democratic victory may seem slim, analysts should recognize that: Venezuela’s Iron Lady It’s cut from a completely different cloth.
Martin Rodriguez Rodriguez is a Latin America specialist based in Washington, DC, and will graduate from Harvard Kennedy School in 2024.
