Moscow sent troops to the Kursk region in response to Ukrainian forces invading Russian territory, raising big questions for the Kremlin and giving Kiev a major opening.
“Given the significant combat power differential in Russia’s favor on the battlefield, it appears likely that Ukrainian forces will switch to, or at least intensify, irregular warfare, taking the war deeper into Russian soil,” Rebecca Koffler, strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” told Fox News Digital.
“With the recent surprise invasion of Kursk Oblast, President Zelenskyy is likely trying to show President Putin that Russians cannot rest in peace unless there is peace in Ukraine,” Kofler said. “Kiev is also likely trying to strengthen its position in peace negotiations with Moscow.”
According to the online newspaper, Russia withdrew an unspecified number of operational reserve forces, including conscript units, former members of Wagner and several special forces, including the Chechen special forces unit Akhmat. Ukraine Pravda.
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Ukraine launched an invasion of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk on Tuesday that shows no signs of slowing four days later, sparking criticism of the Russian military command over intelligence and tactical flaws that allowed such attacks to take place.
In this joint photograph published by Russia’s state-run Sputnik news agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin (center), flanked by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov (right), meets with the heads of law enforcement agencies Alexander Bortnikov (left), head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu, about the situation in the Kursk region, in Moscow on August 7, 2024. (Alexey Babushkin/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukrainian forces have occupied an estimated 100 square miles of territory. The Washington Post.
A Russian military blogger speculated that Russia may have mobilized forces it had been gathering for an offensive in the northern Kharkiv region.
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A retired U.S. Army sergeant major told Fox News Digital that Russia and Ukraine have returned to a stalemate that has plagued both countries every year since the invasion began in 2022, but that any attack along the border would thoroughly test Russian forces because Russia has concentrated many of its forces on the front lines.
The sergeant pointed to last year’s “Wagner fiasco,” in which then-Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin led a small force to within 125 miles of Moscow and encountered little resistance, and suggested Ukraine’s attack near Kursk was a calculated risk to see whether Russia could absorb stress.
A screenshot of a video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian forces launching a missile attack targeting Ukrainian military equipment in the border area near Russia’s Kursk Oblast on August 8, 2024. (Russian Ministry of Defense/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
“Look how far the Wagner group went,” the expert said. “I think they could have made it to Moscow if Putin hadn’t made some kind of deal to stop them. That event must have been the catalyst for this plot in Kursk.”
Bringing war closer to the Russian people could upset them and create greater domestic turmoil for the Russian government, polarize the Kremlin and decentralize the government’s focus, he said.
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“Ukraine is conducting a large-scale online operation, possibly on the ground, to try to stoke opposition to the war,” the expert said. “All this puts pressure on Putin.”
On August 9, more than 400 Russian soldiers en route to fight Ukrainian forces were reportedly killed in a single Himar missile strike in the Kursk region. (Photo courtesy of East2West)
Some Russian military bloggers worry that the invasion would be disruptive and would require the expenditure of too many resources to retake. Kofler warned that rather than weakening Putin, such an attack could strengthen his claims over Ukraine.
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Kofler argued that Putin “will use this opportunity to tell the Russian people that this is exactly why we need to crush Ukraine and defeat it decisively. This is why Russia needs to continue to make sacrifices on the front lines to fight the Ukrainians.”
“Russian media are already accusing the US of being behind this Ukraine operation,” Kofler said, “so the vicious circle will continue, causing more and more destruction and increasing the risk of escalation into a larger war in Europe that could involve NATO and the US.”
