Republicans have drawn favorable maps, but Democrats are leading in several battleground states, making the race a no-brainer in Fox News’ first Senate power rankings of the season.
Splitting the ticket makes a difference
One fact we know about the 1984 presidential election is that Ronald Reagan won in a landslide victory. No other candidate had ever won as big a victory in that election, winning 49 states and receiving a total of 525 electoral votes.
You may not remember that in the same election, Republicans lost two seats in the Senate, reducing their total number of seats in the Senate to 53.
Such outcomes used to be common: In more than 100 postwar elections in which presidential and Senate races were on the same ballot, voters picked winners from different parties. Peaked In the 1970s and 1980s.
Today, voters are far more loyal to political parties: In the last presidential election, of the 35 states with presidential and senatorial elections, voters chose a winner from a different party in only one state (Maine, where Susan Collins served to a fifth term).
Using a different method, the vote shares of Democratic and Republican Senate candidates were, on average, 2.4 percentage points behind the vote share of their respective front-runners.
FOX News Power Rankings: Harris and Trump miss chance to broaden support in VP selection
Thus, the outcome of the presidential election will have a major impact on most of the 34 Senate seats up for election this year. In fact, in every state where one party has an advantage in our projections for both the presidential and senate elections, Power Rankings projects that same party to win both the presidential and senate elections.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate Predictions (Fox News)
But exceptions to this rule determine who controls the Senate.
Republicans are seeking wins in two pro-Trump states that retain moderate Democratic incumbents.
Nearby, a handful of Democratic candidates are outperforming their presidential opponents, despite Democrats making last-minute changes to their nominees.
The performance of top candidates will matter in these elections, but the quality of the candidate, an efficient campaign and the message they deliver to local voters will make a big difference.
The Reagan era feels like a forgotten era in America, and this year we’ll see if vote-splitting is also a distant memory.
Favorable map puts Republicans closer to victory
Fox News Power Rankings Senate District Predictions (Fox News)
Republicans have a head start on their quest for a Senate majority thanks to favorable districting: They have clear advantages in every seat they will defend this year, but Democrats must defend eight hotly contested seats.
Democrats will also enter the night facing a very real possibility of defeat in West Virginia.
The seat is currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin, who decided earlier this year not to run for reelection. The senator narrowly won by 3 points in 2018 thanks to his enduring connection to West Virginians, but Trump won the district by 39 points in the last presidential election, and the district is solidly Republican. Democrats needed Manchin to run if he was going to do well.
This victory alone would give Republicans 50 seats in the Senate, one short of a majority. (If Trump wins the presidential election, Republicans would control the Senate even if they didn’t have a majority because the vice president can break tie votes.)
Republicans are looking to win in Montana and Ohio to secure control.
Fox News Power Rankings Republican State Senate Predictions (Fox News)
Some of the dynamics of these races are similar to West Virginia: In 2020, Trump won Montana by 16 points and Ohio by 8 points. Two years ago, Democratic incumbents Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown won the same states by nearly 4 points and 7 points, respectively.
Republicans are optimistic that victory in both races is within reach: Tester and Brown vote largely in line with the Biden administration’s priorities, and Republicans have fielded strong candidates in both states, including former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy of Montana and Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno.
At the same time, incumbent Democratic senators have acted against their party on issues that matter most to their voters: Senator Tester, for example, is a leading advocate for the Keystone XL pipeline, and Senator Brown has lobbied his party to support further tariffs on imports from China.
Montana and Ohio are close races.
Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming presidential candidates in battleground states
Although the Senate district maps are tough, Democrats are buoyed by strong polling in most of the seats they are defending.
Fox News Power Rankings Analysis of Battleground State Democratic Senators (Fox News)
That includes three notoriously volatile Rust Belt states at the heart of the presidential race: Michigan and Pennsylvania, where recent Fox News polls of the three races show more than 50% of voters backing the Democratic candidate.
- In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Democrat), a former CIA analyst, is leading former Rep. and FBI agent Mike Rogers (Republican), 51% to 46%, or 5 points.
- In Pennsylvania, three-term Sen. Bob Casey (Democrat) is leading Republican Sen. Dave McCormick, a businessman and senior Bush administration official, 55% to 42%, or 13 points.
- In Wisconsin, second-term Senator and nominee Tammy Baldwin (Democrat) is leading banker and nominee Eric Hovde (R) by a 54-43 margin, or 11 points. (Wisconsin’s primary is tomorrow.)
Slotkin, Casey and Baldwin are all experienced politicians who are running well-funded campaigns that hope to win by focusing on local issues like infrastructure, child safety and health care costs.
Those races are far from over, and as the contests heat up, Republicans will likely seek to raise the profile of their candidates and remind voters that their opponents have supported the Biden administration’s economic and immigration policies.
But those polling leads give Democrats an advantage today, with the Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin rated as Democratic.
Fox News Power Rankings of Republican and Democratic Performance in Senate Elections (Fox News)
In the Southwest, Republican and former local news anchor Kali Lake is running for a second state election in Arizona after an unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial bid.
While Lake’s race was very close, his margin of victory of 17,117 votes was nearly double former President Trump’s margin of victory in 2020, and he lost 28 points to his Democratic opponent among independents in a Fox News 2022 voter analysis.
Lake is facing off against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz. 3rd District), an Iraq War veteran, progressive and critic of retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. With the border at the forefront of the issue, Lake and his supporters have criticized Gallego for his support of liberal immigration policies such as sanctuary cities.
Galigo has the upper hand on the lake. recently Polls show Lake has more than three times as much cash and three times as much cash on hand. Trump’s strong showing in Arizona might be enough to give Lake a win, but the race starts in lean D.
Fox News Power Rankings breaks down Senate battleground states (Fox News)
The hottest battleground state race is in Nevada, where incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term against Republican Sam Brown, an Afghanistan war veteran.
While Rosen is running a similarly small-scale campaign against Rust Belt incumbents, Brown is banking on his military experience and the backing of Trump.
Nevada is one of the closest states in the presidential race, and neither candidate has had a consistent lead in the polls. Rosen ended June with three times as much money as Brown, but that’s still not enough to give either party an advantage. The race is a 50-50 contest.
Maryland’s open seat gives Republicans a chance to turn the tide
In the races discussed so far in this forecast, Republicans are looking to win in states that are highly competitive in presidential elections or where the right wing has an advantage.
FOX News Power Rankings: Has Kamala Harris freed herself from her burdens?
In Maryland, Republicans are looking to flip strong Democratic areas.
The Old Line State voted for President Biden by 33 points over President Trump in 2020, and its high share of Black voters and college-educated voters gives Democrats an early advantage.
If anyone could take on this script, it’s former Governor Larry Hogan.
Fox News Power Rankings Performance Table (Fox News)
Hogan has run his eight years in office as a moderate and Trump skeptic, which is what Republicans need to win here, and so far voters say they’ve backed him. He’s campaigning 64% favorable rating Among registered voters in Maryland.
The challenge will be to convince Democrats who supported Hogan for governor to back him for the Senate, where his pro-Roe and anti-Trump stance will help him win over moderates, and Trump’s surprise backing could help stave off resentment among MAGA voters.
Democrats remain ahead. Not only are the electoral maths in their favor, but candidate Angela Alsobrooks has raised more money and is effectively using her experience as a county manager and prosecutor.
With Vice President Harris The Washington Post It will help. Maryland starts with Lean D.
The first House of Representatives power rankings projections will be released tomorrow
Power Rankings mania continues tomorrow with our first predictions for the US House of Representatives elections, check them out here: America’s Newsroom To see the forecast for all 435 districts,
Check back on Wednesday for first-look coverage of 11 contested gubernatorial races in 2024. Our new Power Rankings Issues Tracker wraps up the week as Democracy 24’s special coverage of the Democratic National Convention begins.
