(News Nation) — U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza could have a major impact on how voters in battleground states show up to the polls in November.
When President Biden was running as the Democratic candidate, some voters who opposed his policies rebelled against him, dissatisfied with his support for Israel.
But with Harris at the helm, some political experts say she may have a chance to win over those voters, especially in key battleground states that have historically been won by narrow margins.
“In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where the 2016 and 2020 elections were decided by close margins, small changes in voter turnout can have big effects,” Chris Bolick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College and director of the school’s Public Opinion Institute, told NewsNation.
“Regarding the situation in Gaza and Israel, there are people in every country who see this issue very saliently.”
The Gaza issue could affect voter turnout
Voters unhappy with the administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict could be a much-needed constituency for Harris in battleground states.
That is, if they show up.
“As has been the case in most recent presidential elections, the outcome is expected to be close and voter turnout will play a large role in whether a candidate wins or loses,” said Michael Traugott, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
For voters who care deeply about what is happening in Gaza and are unhappy with the current administration’s response, “the concern is not whether they’ll vote for Donald Trump, but rather that they’ll be less likely to vote, which could impact overall voter turnout,” he said.
In Michigan, he said, the Gaza issue is a “huge concern” for many Arab Americans and Muslims in the state and will have major implications in terms of voter turnout and mobilization in the election.
He said many in the anti-war movement reject Biden’s positions and, by extension, his nominations altogether, and that Harris would not take a radically different position as part of the Biden administration, but would try to be more nuanced in her statements.
The Movement to Build Battleground States
protest Protests by people opposed to the war have erupted across the country, including a campaign to instruct voters to refrain from voting in protest.
When Biden was running, more than 650,000 Democrats reportedly voted against him by selecting options such as “independent,” and in other states protested by writing open ballots, casting blank ballots, or voting for other candidates. Politico.
The 30 undecided delegates are expected to attend next week’s Democratic National Convention in an effort to persuade Harris’s supporters to pressure the party to include a ceasefire in its convention platform.
The movement has more than 101,000 members Unconfirmed vote He received 17,000 votes in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary and 47,800 votes in Wisconsin.
In 2020, Biden won by similar margins, receiving 154,000 votes in Michigan, 20,600 votes in Wisconsin and about 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania.
Harris appears to be aware of that fine line, having dispatched campaign officials to Michigan this week to meet with Arab American and Muslim leaders who have reportedly continued to insist that the U.S. government demand an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza. Detroit Free Press.
She also pivoted to take a more nuanced tone on Gaza.
“I have been very clear: now is the time to reach a ceasefire and end hostage trading.” Harris said Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted her campaign rally in Arizona this week.
Harris, in a televised statement after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month, maintained Israel’s “unwavering commitment” to the country and its right to “defend itself”, but also noted the massive humanitarian crisis.
“When we see children who have died, when we see desperate and hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes forced to flee a second, third or fourth time, we cannot turn a blind eye to these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. I will not be silent.”
Balancing pro-Palestinian and Jewish voters
Harris is part of the current administration but not Biden, and so is showing a bit of a “fresh start” on the issue, Bolick said.
“She has an opportunity on this issue as the Democratic candidate, whereas Joe Biden cannot, because he is seen as the face of US policy on the events of October and its subsequent involvement in Gaza.”
But Harris will have to navigate a delicate “tactic” to retain a larger Democratic coalition that includes Jewish voters concerned about her commitment to Israel, he said.
This could certainly have an impact in Pennsylvania, he added, as the state has a sizable Jewish population and her stance on Israel may affect their willingness to vote.
Bolick said the Gaza issue is dividing Pennsylvania’s Democratic coalition.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (Democrat) is widely popular in his state but has come under fire from progressives for his comments about pro-Palestinian protests and for supporting a bill that would punish universities that decide to boycott Israel or impose economic sanctions on the country. Patriot News.
But it angered some voters. Shapiro believed he passed. Ms Harris was not chosen as the running mate because of her Jewish faith, and Mr Bolick said it was unlikely voters would turn away from her solely because of her faith.
“In a place like Pennsylvania where the margins are so close, there’s not a lot of margin for error, so I think it’s going to be a challenge for Harris to navigate this among voters who really care about this issue,” Bolick said.
