A new poll finds that Vice President Harris is closing the gap on former President Trump in several key battleground states as the election approaches.
In opinion polls, Released on SaturdayHarris is leading Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent), according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. The vice president’s momentum has grown in recent weeks, with her campaign declaring the Tar Heel State, where Trump built a solid lead when he faced former President Biden, once again a strong state for Democrats.
In Nevada and Georgia, Ms. Harris has nearly closed the gap on the former president, with the poll showing Mr. Trump leading the vice president 48 percent to 47 percent in the Silver State and 50 percent to 46 percent in the Peach State.
Polls show Trump and Harris tied at 48% on average in the four Sun Belt states, meaning a win in at least one of those states, plus three others (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), would be enough to win the presidency.
Harris has risen steadily in national polls since Biden dropped out of the race last month and endorsed her candidacy in November. She became the Democratic nominee earlier this month and is due to formally accept the nomination alongside her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next week.
A separate Times/Siena poll conducted earlier this month found Ms Harris leading Mr Trump by at least 4 points in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – three battleground states where Ms Harris had a 3 percentage point lead before Mr Biden dropped out of the race.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted Aug. 10 found Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points in the three states. Earlier this year, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, three must-win states for Democrats to retain the White House.
Saturday’s poll is a big improvement for Democrats compared to a similar survey conducted in May, which showed Trump leading 50 percent to Biden 41 percent in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, but did not include North Carolina.
The latest poll results, released after the independent election forecaster Cook Political Report changed Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “Republican strong” to “close race,” show Harris continuing to gradually reduce Trump’s lead in most battleground states.
Democratic voters are also much more optimistic about a presidential election with Harris as the front-runner than Biden, with 85% saying they have at least some confidence in their candidate and the election, also much higher than in the May poll.
About 85% of Republicans are also at least somewhat willing to vote, roughly the same as in May.
Voters gave Harris a 48% favorable rating, the same as her unfavorable rating. The Times/Siena poll didn’t look at her favorability in those states, but national surveys have found Kamala to be the favorite in those states. A net adverse rating of 19 percent In February.
Harris has gained rapid momentum since launching her campaign, especially online, with her posts on platforms such as TikTok rekindling interest among younger voters disappointed with Biden’s candidacy.
That momentum was evident in Saturday’s poll, which showed Harris holding a 13-point lead over Trump among TikTok users in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, after Biden held a 3-point lead among the same group in May.
Polls have also shown that the public’s vote is increasingly split along racial and gender lines, with Ms Harris receiving the support of 84% of black voters and 54% of Latino voters in a recent survey.
Overall, she leads Trump by 29 points among non-white voters in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, well ahead of Biden’s 17-point lead in May, while Trump has the support of 66 percent of white voters without college degrees in the four Sun Belt states.
Third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support has been cut in half since the May poll, with the poll showing him with just a 4% average in four states. His candidacy no longer has a meaningful impact on the Trump-Harris contest in those states, a trend that has been echoed in other battleground states since the vice president rose to the top of the candidate list.
According to the Hill/Decision Desk National Polling Index, based on more than 100 surveys, Trump leads Harris nationally by 1.8 percentage points (49 percent to 47.2 percent).
The latest Times/Siena surveyed 2,670 registered voters in four states from Aug. 8 to 15. The polls in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia each have a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, while North Carolina has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
