A new poll in Maine, which could hold crucial electoral votes in November’s election, has found Vice President Harris leading former President Trump by 5 points, contrary to most expectations in the state.
of investigation A poll released Wednesday by the University of New Hampshire Research Center showed Harris leading Trump in both states, including Maine.and He won the congressional district by a five-point margin, 49 percent to 44 percent, a margin smaller than the statewide margin but notable given how Maine’s electoral votes are allocated.
Maine is one of two states, along with Nebraska, that allocates its electoral votes according to the winner of each district: the state has four votes total, with two given to the statewide winner and one vote each to the winners of the two districts.
Statewide and 1st The congressional district leans toward the Democratic Party, butand The district is more of a mixed race, having voted for former President Obama in 2008 and 2012 before voting for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
The district only has one vote, but it could be key in what is expected to be a close election to determine the winner.
The poll results are an improvement for Harris compared with a poll conducted by the center last month, which showed Trump favored her. Take the lead 4 points difference.
But Harris remains far from the favorite to win the district’s vote, which most analyses have labeled as likely to vote for Trump and which Decision Desk had rated as “Republican-leaning” before its model was halted following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
Trump won the district by about 7 points in 2020 and by about 10 points in 2016.
The poll also found Harris’ statewide lead to be much larger than some polls had projected Biden to have, with her leading Trump by 17 points (55 percent to 38 percent).
Maine has been a Democratic state at the presidential level, but as Biden has struggled in the polls, Republicans have started talking about it as a potential presidential hotbed: A Center for Democrats poll last month, after Harris joined the race, gave Biden an 8-point lead.
The University of New Hampshire poll was conducted among 951 likely general election voters from Aug. 15 to 19. The margin of error for the overall sample was 3.2 percentage points, and 4.6 percentage points for the 2nd District.
