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Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party had a successful convention in Chicago this week. At every turn, they tried to counter attacks from their opponents. I thought the Harris-Waltz team made the case repeatedly and especially effectively in the VP’s Thursday night speech that they are for national unity, against ideology, for the middle class and women, and above all, for America.
Even the average person can’t help but notice that there is very little in VP Harris’ speech that connects to the US agenda or policy proposals. Harris-Waltz strategists understand that on some issues she could easily lose to former President Donald Trump. But in terms of life story, ambition and symbolism, she has a much better chance of turning what could have been a Democratic defeat with Joe Biden coming out on top into a potential victory for Kamala Harris.
This week’s Democratic National Convention has been characterized as one of great atmosphere and joyful politics, and Harris herself rose to the occasion on Thursday night. She told voters of all parties and ideologies that she and With them for She contrasted him particularly with the older, more naive Donald Trump, who, she said, sided primarily with billionaires.
Kamala Harris formally accepts Democratic nomination at Democratic National Convention
The vice president and her surrogates were forceful. They struck a patriotic tone and tried to assure voters in firm terms that they stood with allies in Europe and Ukraine (if not Israel). Harris and her allies made it abundantly clear that they were for the middle class and with the middle class, but most importantly, their goal was to highlight and exacerbate gender inequality by making this convention primarily for and about women.
Harris Waltz will no doubt pick up some traction if she can organize and execute the Democratic National Convention in Chicago extremely well, and the vice president is likely to go into the fall campaign with a small but clear lead over former President Trump nationally and likely in most battleground states.
The election is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent president, and the September 10 debate between the vice president and the former president will determine whether Harris can avoid the taint of the current president’s now-fading failures.
But make no mistake: It would be a mistake to think that the four-day spectacle the Democrats created fundamentally changed or altered the overall course of this campaign. While many were energized by the event, few saw or heard anything that would fundamentally differentiate the Democratic candidates on issues that American voters care deeply about: inflation, cost of living, immigration, crime. There was simply not enough substance offered to make a big difference between them and former President Trump.
Trump slams Harris as part of truth social furor over her “omission” from Democratic National Convention speech
The convention began with incumbent President Joe Biden’s approval rating at under 40%. Despite the convention’s success, Biden’s approval rating will likely not budge this week, since the election is ultimately a referendum on incumbency. The September 10 debate between the vice president and former president will determine whether Harris can avoid the stigma of a now-fading incumbent president.
No matter what the national media says right now, and despite the inevitable boost in political support the Democratic candidates will receive after the convention, this election is still likely to be very close — as close as the last two presidential elections, 2016 and 2020.
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We won’t know for sure what direction the 2024 presidential election is headed until the poll results after the Harris vs. Trump debate on September 10 are out. But even then, we must remember that Trump has performed much better in elections than the pre-election polls suggest. What many in the liberal media portray as the inevitability of Harris vs. Waltz is likely, and even likely, to be a repeat of the past two national elections. In other words, following the party conventions, a Democratic victory is not guaranteed. Rather, this election will be very close.
A big question now facing Donald Trump and his Republican colleagues is whether they can successfully recalibrate their campaign so that they can criticize VP Harris as effectively as they can criticize the current president.
The most recent presidential election was ultimately decided by fewer than 100,000 votes, and the same is likely to happen in 2024, despite national media backing the Harris-Waltz coalition and viewing the incumbent vice president as the likely candidate to be elected president.
Both parties had successful conventions this summer, and in Chicago this week, Harris was able to address most or all of her negative traits in general terms: being far-left, polarizing, unproven, soft on immigrants and crime, etc. It’s clear she will continue in this vein for the rest of the campaign.
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A big question now facing Donald Trump and his Republican allies is whether they can successfully recalibrate their campaign to be as effective at criticizing VP Harris as they are at criticizing the current president, a big open question as the presidential campaign traditionally kicks off on Labor Day.
Conclusion: The politics of joy is not necessarily the politics of victory.
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