Democrats concluded their convention in Chicago last week, bringing the 2024 election cycle – which includes presidential and lower-tier races – into its final stages before Election Day.
At this point, the fate of the House majority hangs in the balance.
President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Vice President Harris’ sudden emergence as the Democratic nominee has upended the 2024 election and shaken predictions for the White House and congressional races. Decision Desk HQ has suspended its House projections following “unprecedented” changes at the top of the candidate list.
Still, Democrats are hopeful they can win at least four seats to recapture their majority, while Republicans are confident they can maintain and even expand their lead in Congress.
Here are five House of Representatives elections to watch this season.
New York’s 22nd Congressional District
Republicans picked up four New York seats that are crucial to winning control of the House in 2022, and Democrats now say their path to retaking the majority goes through New York state.
Key to that plan is New York’s 22nd Congressional District, represented by first-term Republican Rep. Brandon Williams, who defeated a Democratic challenger to replace retiring Rep. John Katko of New York and retained the Republican-held seat in 2022.
But the district, which includes Syracuse and Utica, is currently one of Democrats’ biggest swing vote opportunities.
Williams’ district is one of 17 Republican-controlled districts that Biden won in 2020 and is rated “Democrat-leaning” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. In November, Williams will face off against two-term Democratic state Sen. John Mannion.
The race has drawn extraordinary interest in Washington, underscoring the importance of the fight for control of the House of Representatives. He campaigned with Williams. In February, Mannion said his race “will likely be one of the deciding factors in whether we maintain or increase our majority in the House of Representatives.” Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is supporting Mannion as part of its “Red to Blue” program.
Williams and Mannion are scheduled to go head-to-head in four debates before Election Day, with the first scheduled for October 1.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
This is a rematch in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.
Rep. Marie Grusenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), a first-term lawmaker from the Evergreen State, will face off again in 2022 against Republican Joe Kent, whom she beat in an upset Democratic victory.
Kent, who is backed by former President Trump, defeated then-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) in the Republican primary, defeating the Republican who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But in the general election, auto repair shop owner Grusenkamp Perez beat Kent by just one percentage point, giving Democrats the district that Trump won in 2020.
The Cook Political Report rates the second round of the Grusenkamp-Perez vs. Kent matchup as a “50-50” chance.
Gruzenkamp Perez has worked hard to build a reputation as a moderate throughout her first term in Congress and has frequently disagreed with her Democratic colleagues on a range of votes. She recently came into the spotlight amid the furor surrounding Biden’s candidacy. Local Outlets He said the president should resign and then refused to endorse Harris.
The congresswoman made headlines this week when she was one of several Democrats who chose to skip their party’s convention in Chicago, spending the day in their districts and focusing on their re-election efforts, and Republicans took advantage.
The Republican National Congressional Committee set up a mobile billboard at the convention site criticizing Gruzenkamp-Perez and other Democrats for missing the event, reading, “Have you seen me? Supporters of Harris.”
Kent, meanwhile, has emphasized his affinity with Trump. Earlier this month, the Republican said Trump’s opponents were censoring him because “when people hear directly from Trump, I can’t help but like him“His policies are not radical, they’re common sense. That’s what they’re afraid of.”
New York’s 17th Congressional District
Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) is fighting to regain his seat in the House of Representatives.
Jones, who suffered a crushing defeat in the 2022 Democratic primary, is challenging first-term Rep. Mike Lawler of New York for his old seat in what is becoming one of the most fiercely contested races in this House election cycle.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as a “50-50” contest. Lawler is one of 17 Republicans who represent districts won by Biden in 2020.
Jones was elected to represent New York’s 17th congressional district in 2020, but after redistricting, he opted to run in the Empire State’s 10th congressional district to avoid a challenge from Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), who led the DCCC at the time. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) defeated Jones in the primary.
Once hailed as a rising progressive star, Jones has seemed to soften his stance since re-emerging in a battleground state for his old seat. For example, the former congressman backed George Latimer in the primary against incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman of Dublin, N.Y., for his stance on the Israel-Hamas war, which has a sizable Jewish population.
Lawler, meanwhile, quickly rose to prominence during his first term in Congress, appearing on cable TV news shows and emerging as an ally of the leadership, especially during former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)’s tenure as the top congressional leader.
Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pennsylvania) is fighting for his political life as he faces a challenge from businessman and Republican Rob Bresnahan in a district that Trump won in 2020.
Cartwright, who has been cited as one of the DCCC’s front-runners, is beating Bresnahan in the money game: Cartwright has raised $5.66 million this term, more than double Bresnahan’s $2.56 million. Pennsylvania Capital StarBresnahan loaned the campaign $400,000 in the last quarter.
The big numbers come as Democrats are buoyed by Ms Harris’s ascension to the party’s top candidate, and while they hope the momentum on the ground will translate into wins across the board, leading election forecasters say its effect is still unclear and may not be as beneficial for candidates running in battleground or conservative districts.
David Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, told The Hill earlier this month that Cartwright, who represents Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, could be one of those candidates.
Cartwright and Bresnahan are scheduled to debate on October 22nd.
Michigan 7th Congressional District
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) announced in February 2023 that she will run for the U.S. Senate to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and open the seat in the state’s battleground 7th Congressional District.
Former Michigan Sens. Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel Jr. (D) are set to face off in November in a race that could have crucial implications for control of the House next year. Michigan as a whole is also a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as a “50-50” contest, with Slotkin beating Barrett by just over 5 percentage points in the 2022 election.
The Wolverine State’s 7th Congressional District has had a checkered political history in both presidential and congressional elections. Prior to Slotkin’s election, the district was represented by a Republican, and before that, a Democrat. Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, but Trump carried it in 2016.
According to a poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections and released last month, Barrett With a considerable lead Hertel has 48% approval rating, while Hertel has 41% approval rating, with 11% of voters still undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
