It’s still inflation, idiot.
The Democrats managed to bring America to a complacent convention last week. Fear and loathing of Donald Trump mixed with hollow celebrationIn a political environment where inflation remains the most pressing issue for voters, that may not be a winning formula.
It is true that Joe Biden has been banished from American politics. It raised the enthusiasm of the Democratic Party. On the election and the economy. The latest YouGov poll shows economist The survey found that 71% of Democrats say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about this year’s presidential election, up nearly 30 points from July and surpassing enthusiastic Republicans at 61%.
Similarly, Democrats are much more optimistic. Consumers are more optimistic about the U.S. economy than they were a month ago: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed Democrats’ expectations jumped from 81.7 to 92.4 before the Democratic National Convention.
Much has been said about the power of positive thinking in politics, but in this case it is not widely shared and its effect is likely to be limited. Independent consumer expectations remained little changed in AugustSince May, it has fluctuated around 62. Since it was 73.7 at the beginning of the year, the current reading indicates a significant drop in optimism among independents.
Americans believe inflation is worse than official figures suggest
of economist Polls show that Americans, at least on a subjective level,are experiencing higher inflation than official figures indicateTwenty-six percent of Americans say inflation is the most important issue, followed by 12% who say “jobs and the economy” is the most important issue. These figures have not changed much in recent months, and are actually much higher than a year ago, when only 18% cited inflation as their top issue.
Looking below the top line numbers, 25% of independent voters say inflation is their biggest challengeUp from 18 percent last year. Among Democrats, those who say inflation is their biggest challenge increased from 10 percent to 19 percent. Among Republicans, this increased from 26 percent to 35 percent. 29 percent of Hispanic voters said inflation is their biggest challenge, up from 23 percent last August. 19 percent of black voters said inflation is their biggest challenge, up from 10 percent. 27 percent of white voters said inflation is their biggest challenge, up from 19 percent.
This is not the development Democratic strategists were hoping for, as they were confident that falling inflation rates would make the issue much less important by Election Day. Federal Reserve System Lowering interest rates would finally allow us to declare victory over inflation.
What went wrong? First, Inflation hasn’t fallen that muchThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.27% in July 2023 compared to 12 months earlier. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the CPI rose 2.92%, meaning inflation has fallen by just 0.3 percentage points over the past year, a very slow pace of improvement.
Many Americans don’t feel like things have improved at all. economist According to a poll 36% of Americans say inflation is higher than it was six months ago.Official figures show it was slightly higher at the start of the year at 3.1% in January, but 24% say inflation has stayed about the same, which seems like a fair assessment, while 28% say inflation has fallen, which is technically true.
of course, The usual partisan gaps in the dataTwenty-five percent of Democrats say inflation is higher than six months ago, compared with 34% of independents and 49% of Republicans. Thirty-six percent of Democrats say inflation is lower, compared with 26% of independents and 23% of Republicans.
But the voters Race and EthnicityAll groups are more likely to say inflation is rising: 35% of white voters say inflation is rising, 31% say it is falling, and 24% say it is about the same. 31% of black voters say inflation is rising, 21% say it is falling, and 27% say it is about the same. 49% of Hispanic voters say inflation is rising, 18% say it is falling, and 19% say it is about the same.
Similarly, Most age groups tend to think inflation is high Compared to six months ago, it has increased. Among 18-29 year olds, 37% say their spending has increased and 15% say it has decreased. Among 30-44 year olds, 34% say their spending has increased and 26% say it has decreased. Among 45-64 year olds, 37% say their spending has increased and 33% say it has decreased. Only among older Americans does the pattern reverse, with 35% saying their spending has increased and 38% saying it has decreased.
The inflation war is a class war
But when it comes to views on inflation, the starkest divide is along class lines: 43 percent of voters making less than $50,000 a year say inflation has gotten worse, while 20 percent say it has gotten better. Among voters making between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, 41 percent say it has gotten better, while 30 percent say it has gotten worse. But wealthier Americans see inflation quite differently. Just 24% said inflation was rising, while 46% said it was falling..
Given that, it’s perhaps not surprising that when it comes to inflation, the wealthy are more likely than other Americans to say they trust Democrats over Republicans. Among voters earning more than $100,000, 38% said they trusted the Democrats.This is the same percentage who say they trust the Republican Party. Among middle-income earners, only 32% trust Democrats, compared with 42% who trust Republicans. Among low-income earners, 27% trust Democrats, compared with 34% who trust Republicans.
Republicans have an edge over Democrats when it comes to inflation, but the gap is not large. With 36% of all voters saying they trust the Republican Party, four points more than those who trust the Democrats, Republicans will need to be careful not to get complacent when it comes to counting on voters’ support on the biggest issues facing American families.
