Vice President Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the Democratic field has given the party a boost in opinion polls, but some experts are not convinced by her new lead.
“If the polling margin of error is roughly what it was in 2016 and 2020, Trump is currently ahead,” Democratic strategist Julian Epstein told Fox News Digital.
The remarks come as a Real Clear Politics polling average shows Harris leading former President Trump by just 1.5 points nationally, a sharp shift from the three-point lead Trump had over Biden the day before the president dropped out of the race.
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Former President Trump arrived to speak at a campaign rally in Bozeman, Montana, on August 9. The poll found that American adults rate Trump more highly on his ability to manage the economy compared to Harris. (AP/Rick Bowmer)
But Harris' lead is far smaller than the leads Trump enjoyed at the same time in 2016 and 2020. At the time, the Republican nominee trailed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 6 points and Biden by 7.1 points.
Though Trump won in 2016 and lost reelection in 2020, the former president significantly outperformed the polls in two close elections, a fact not lost on Democrats heading into the final battle in 2024.
be Report from Politico Recent polls showing Harris in the lead conducted by Democratic firms last week also contain warning signs, such as Trump's lead on attributes that are more likely to sway voters. Polls show Harris roughly tied with Trump in battleground states, meaning the vice president is trailing the national average in states that could decide the election.
“It remains a very tight race, and that's consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at GBAO Strategies, a Democratic polling firm, told Politico.
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Former President Trump speaks at a campaign event in Las Vegas on Friday, Aug. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Julia Nickinson)
Democratic pollsters also worry that polling errors could happen again, despite efforts after 2020 by several of the party's biggest pollsters to work together to diagnose the problem.
“I've spent a great deal of time and analysis trying to look at these issues from the inside out, and I feel like I understand these issues better than I did before,” Nick Gourevitch, a partner at Global Strategy Group who participated in the Democratic “Dissecting the Polls,” told Politico. “I don't think there's any pollster in America who can say they've solved every polling problem with 100% certainty. I think that would be foolish.”
That reality is acknowledged by Democratic pollsters, who are urging caution despite Ms Harris's rapid rise in the polls in recent weeks.
“Every year there's been some surprise. This is a tough industry,” John Anzalone, chief pollster for Biden's 2020 presidential campaign, told Politico. “Something will happen in 2024. Right now, neither you nor I know what it is.”
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at an event at the Prime Osborn Convention Center in Jacksonville, Florida, on May 1, 2024. (Joe Raedl/Getty Images)
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Meanwhile, Epstein cited several reasons for concern for Democrats, noting that Harris continues to have “significantly lower approval ratings in battleground states in the Rust Belt” and “low approval ratings among working-class voters and black voters.”
“The idea that Harris doesn't need to articulate policy or appear before the press is a strategy born of vanity and recklessness that will ultimately backfire,” Epstein added.
