Cook Political Group, a nonpartisan organization It changed the course of the North Carolina presidential race. As Vice President Harris narrowed the gap with former President Trump, her vote shifted from “leaning toward Republican” to “50-50.”
“Despite the optimism and hype, [President] Biden couldn't sustain this campaign. [North Carolina] “By the time he dropped out of the race in late July, his lead over Trump had grown to nearly seven points,” Cook editor-in-chief Amy Walter said. Written in the analysis Tuesday. “But today, the Tar Heel State seems more competitive than ever.”
Based on the average of opinion polls 538 and Real Clear Politics, Walter writes that Harris and Trump are neck and neck, with approval ratings of about 45.7%.
She noted that while Trump hasn't lost any political ground since Biden dropped out last month, the change is due to Harris improving the president's vote share by seven points.On July 21, the day Biden dropped out of the race, the analysis showed that an average of 538 polls had Trump leading Biden 45.6 percent to 38.7 percent.
“In other words, the race is tighter not because Harris is chipping away at Trump's votes, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are returning home,” Walter wrote.
The shift is the latest good news for Harris in North Carolina, a state that Biden did not win in 2020.
Sabatos Crystal Ball, a leading election forecasting organization, last week changed North Carolina from “Republican” to “close race” but said it was skeptical the state would go in Harris' favor.
In North Carolina, Harris leads Trump by 1.1 percentage points, according to a polling index by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.
Harris is also competing with Trump among Hispanic voters in the Tar Heel State, according to a Televisa Univision Consumer Strategy & Insights/Media Predict poll released last week. Hill got it firstThe survey found that Harris received 56% of support among Hispanic voters in North Carolina, compared with 34% for Trump.
Since replacing Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee last month, Harris has rapidly gained momentum, threatening the large lead he holds over President Trump both nationally and in battleground states.
Harris has seen a surge in support since replacing Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee last month, threatening the large lead Trump once held over the president nationally and in battleground states.
But some political strategists and Democrats have warned that it is too early to draw conclusions about the November election and that Harris' momentum could slow over the next two months.
