This week's PGA Tour Championship has a unique format with just 30 golfers starting in stages.
The final five golfers in the rankings will start at even par, with FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler at -10, Xander Schauffele at -8 and Hideki Matsuyama at -7.
This unique format makes the event one of the strangest events of the year for handicapping and betting.
Essentially, there are two main outright markets: one with a starting stroke and one without a starting stroke.
I prefer the latter, but the lack of a leaderboard that only tracks 4-round scores makes it a little harder to break a sweat because of the extra effort it takes to bet on a low 72-hole score.
Atlanta's East Lake Golf Club has undergone extensive renovations since last year's tournament.
Fairways and greens have been reshaped, bunkers have been added or removed, and the course has been extended by over 100 yards.
It currently measures 7,490 yards long with a par of 71, making it one of the longest courses on the tour on an adjusted par basis.
To golfers, the course may look a little different, but its bones are the same. Historically, hitting the fairway was essential at East Lake.
Playing from the rough is difficult and there are trees that can obstruct off-fairway approach shots.
I pay most attention to total driving, strokes gained approach and bogey avoidance.
Here are my best bets for the 2024 Tour Championship:
Xander Schauffele wins on starting stroke (+230, FanDuel)
There are plenty of reasons to prefer Schauffele over Scheffler this week.
First of all, he has a good course history at East Lake.
Looking at the last 5 years (no starting strokes) he has finished 1st, T6th, T3rd, 1st and T2nd.
He is the most complete player on the tour and has no weaknesses in his game.
East Lake is a tournament that challenges every aspect of a golfer's game, which is why he has had such success at the tournament.
He will start two strokes behind Scheffler, but that's not a big concern.
Scheffler lost strokes from tee to green for the first time in a year last week and has finished T13th or worse (no starting strokes) in this tournament in each of the past three years.
Collin Morikawa (16/1, BetMGM)
Morikawa, who had the fourth-best score after 72 holes at last year's Tour Championship, may be the player best suited to the course of any player in the field.
He's an elite driver who strikes the ball totally, has been one of the best iron players on tour for many years and has made great strides in his short game as well.
He has no wins on his resume in 2024 despite having the most consistent season of his career.
It's unlikely he'll catch Scheffler and Schauffele if starting strokes are taken into account, but he's certain to finish with the lowest score after 72 holes.
Do you bet on golf?
Russell Henley's lowest 72-hole score (+2500, bet365)
Henry, like Morikawa, relies on accuracy off the tee and good iron play.
He tends to play best on courses where he can't overwhelm himself off the tee.
Golfers will need to be precise this week as thick rough and water will come into play on eight holes.
This should be a very good result for Henry, who has already earned four top-five finishes this season.
The problem with Henry is that when he's in contention to win on Sundays, he doesn't play great most of the time.
The good thing about this bet is that he can keep his 72-hole score low without the pressure of the final day, and he'll start at -2, allowing him to be aggressive all four days.
