Michigan's Senate race has emerged as a much bigger chance for Republican victory than initially thought, after former Rep. Mike Rogers recently tied with his Democratic opponent among key groups, according to a new poll.
Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabell Law didn't initially expect the kind of Republican support Rogers is now seeing in the state, given the state's recent history of electing mostly Democratic senators.
Republican activists agree that Michigan's election results were a pleasant surprise.
“Michigan looks a little more competitive than Ohio,” a senior Republican strategist told Fox News Digital, noting that races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio have traditionally been seen as Republicans' best chances this term.
Trump's Florida allies oppose abortion amendment as former president decides how to vote
The Michigan Senate race between Elisa Slotkin and Mike Rogers is turning out to be more competitive than initially expected. (Associated Press)
“From what I've seen, Michigan is very competitive,” he explained.
The seat is currently held by outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrat of Michigan.
new Commissioned by AARP In Michigan, the poll shows Rogers tied with Rep. Elisa Slotkin (D-Mich.) among voters over 50, 46% to 46%, while the race remains close among all voters, with Slotkin holding a slight lead 47% to 44%.
Bob Ward, a partner at the nonpartisan polling team Fabrizio Ward, said the Senate race is “definitely a battleground.”
Republican senators try to tie foreign voting crackdown to passage of spending bill
Rogers has the endorsement of former President Trump. (Reuters/Gina Moon)
Among registered voters, Slotkin beat Rogers by just one point, 42% to 41%. The New York Times It will take place at the University of Siena in early August.
Rogers' race has been one of the closest so far, and insiders point to several reasons why.
Harris was “positive” about adding seats to the Supreme Court during the 2019 presidential election.
Slotkin currently serves as a member of the House of Representatives. (Bill Priano/Getty Images)
Cabell Roe pointed to the Michigan election as evidence that the quality of the candidate matters in winning elections. He said Rogers, a former congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is a better candidate than other Republicans running in tight Senate races around the country.
He also pointed to the fact that Rogers, unlike many other Republicans, is not running against an incumbent, meaning Slotkin faces many of the same challenges in the Senate race as Rogers.
Cabell Law said one aspect that may be overlooked in considering Michigan's competitiveness is its relatively large Muslim voter base and their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration's actions in the Gaza war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas.
Harris campaign official ignores press conference question; VP has not held a press conference in 33 days
Anti-Israel protesters disrupt Vice President Harris during a campaign rally at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Romulus, Michigan, on August 7, 2024. (Adam J. Dewey/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Click here to get the FOX News app
Cabel Law said he doesn't expect disgruntled Muslim voters to switch to the Republican Party, but they may choose not to vote at all, which would hurt Democrats.
Last month, the nonpartisan political handicapper Cook Political Report The Michigan Senate race was changed from “Democrat-leaning” to “close” to reflect the competitive nature of the election. The Senate races in Montana and Ohio are also in this category.
Get the latest 2024 campaign updates, exclusive interviews and more on Fox News Digital's Election Hub.
