A leading political forecaster has revised its projections for Montana's November Senate election to show the Republicans with an advantage after Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's approval rating began to slip in the polls.
The race between Tester and former Navy SEAL and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy has gone from “evenly matched” to “leaning Republican.” Sabbath's Crystal Ball The event took place at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics on Friday, less than nine weeks before the election.
The rating change comes in response to AARP's latest poll, released Thursday, which shows Sheehy holding a 6-point lead over Tester, 51% to 45%. In an expanded field, Sheehy still beat Tester, 49% to 41%.
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Sheehy is currently expected to win the Nevada Senate election against incumbent Tester. (Reuters)
“Beyond the polls, as we've noted, history and recent trends are not in Tester's favor,” wrote executive editor Kyle Kondik. “He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in both houses of Congress, and he holds a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election.”
“Maybe this year we'll see ticket splitting pick up again, which will help testers survive. But in the long term we'll definitely see ticket splitting trending downwards,” he said.
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Tester is seeking re-election for a third term. (Samuel Corum)
The Tester and Sheehy campaigns did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital for comment.
Montanans first elected Tester to the Senate in 2006, and he has been re-elected twice, even though the state traditionally votes Republican.
The 2018 reelection of Democratic senators did not coincide with the presidential election, so there was no concern that the Democratic presidential candidate would affect the race. However, Vice President Kamala Harris now leads the Democratic field, while former President Donald Trump, who won Montana twice, in 2016 and 2020, leads the Republican field in the state.
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Tester was involved in recruiting Harris for the Senate seat. (Reuters)
Tester has withheld his support for Harris and did not attend last month's Democratic National Convention, appearing to distance himself from Harris and the party, but the effectiveness of that strategy is unclear, especially since Tester, who was then-head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), was reportedly directly responsible for endorsing Harris for the Senate in 2015.
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The latest polls show Sheehy beating Tester. (Reuters/Mike Seeger)
Additionally, the Montana Democrat enthusiastically endorsed Senator Harris when she was selected as President Biden's running mate in 2020. Harris wrote to X, “My friend Kamala Harris is a proven fighter and the perfect person to be Vice President. As Vice President, I am confident she will continue to fight for our country's working families. I look forward to cheering on her and Joe Biden in November.”
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More recently, Tester asserted, “I'm not going to endorse anyone for president, and I'll tell you why.”
“There are two reasons. One, I'm focused on my election. And two, people want to make this a national issue, but this is not a national issue. This is a Montana issue,” he said, justifying his decision not to endorse Harris.
Fox News Digital's Aubrie Spady contributed to this report.
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