On Saturday, the University of Michigan Wolverines will host the University of Texas Longhorns at the Big House in an intriguing non-conference matchup.
For most of the summer, the market had Texas favored by just one field goal, putting the defending champions at home against the Longhorns as underdogs by more than a touchdown.
What insights can we glean from these teams' Week 1 performances? And where is the betting value in these matchups? Let's take a closer look.
Texas vs Michigan odds
| team | Spread the word | Money Line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -7.5 (+100) | -275 | o42.5 (-110) |
| Michigan | +7.5 (-120) | +220 | u42.5 (-110) |
When Texas has the ball
It's hard to imagine Texas having any success with their run attack in this matchup without the efforts of star back C.J. Baxter, who suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year.
Michigan State boasts the best defensive line in the country, featuring future NFL starters Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.
If the Wolverines can force the Longhorns into passing downs consistently, the game could come down to how Quinn Ewers handles Michigan's relentless onslaught under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.
Last year, Ewers only had a 64.6 PFF passing grade against blitzes, which was 77th out of 153 qualified passers.
Texas has some dynamic pass-catching options, but coach Ewers is still building chemistry with a new group full of transfer students.
The Wolverines are incorporating some new starters in the secondary, but the presence of lockdown cornerback Will Johnson brings stability to the group.
When Michigan has the ball
Davis Warren had a solid, if lackluster, debut as Michigan's starting quarterback.
Last week against Fresno State, they had just one turnover-worthy play, gave the ball away quickly, averaging just 2.17 seconds per attempt, and were only sacked once despite being pressured seven times.
Colston Loveland had eight catches for 87 yards and a touchdown and should play a key role this week.
He's a chain-moving tight end that provides a reliable option in the middle of the field.
The Longhorns lost star defensive linemen Byron Murphy II and T'Vondre Sweat to the NFL, but their absence was noticed last week as Colorado State had a success rate of 53 percent on its running plays, above the national average.
Michigan's offensive line is still coming together with five new starters, but the Wolverines should find some success in the ground game.
Karel Mullings averaged 4.3 yards after contact last week and is expected to play a key role going forward.
Alex Orji was also quiet in Week 1 but should play a key role in the read-option game.
Texas vs Michigan Predictions
Michigan is 41-3 since Week 1 of the 2021 season, and its 23-game winning streak at the Big House is the second-longest home winning streak in the country.
But the betting market expects this to be the end.
Michigan, at +7.5 at home, hasn't been such a big home underdog since their 2019 game against Ohio State.
Collin Wilson of the Action Network has the spread on this game as Texas -3, a line that has been available in the look-ahead market for most of the summer.
Do you bet on the NFL?
The market is overreacting to the results of Week 1, and I'm a rare backer of the Wolverines at home on Saturday.
Best bet: Michigan +7.5 (+100, FanDuel)
