Week 1 of the college football season completely dashed some expectations.
Florida State had to bounce back after two straight losses while holding double-digit leads, while Virginia Tech suffered a brutal loss to Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M and LSU also suffered losses, but they came against tough opponents, while Oregon and Michigan struggled late in games against Idaho and Fresno State, respectively.
The upsets are expected to continue on Saturday, and we've picked one ugly underdog that could not only be a threat to cover a big spread, but also pose a threat to a Power Four team with high expectations.
Sam Houston State vs. UCF Predictions
Sometimes a team's WL record doesn't tell the whole story.
That was the case last year at Sam Houston State University.
The Bearcats moved up from FCS to FBS in 2023, but as expected, the transition was difficult.
Sam Houston State started the season 0-8, with four of its losses coming by one point and two coming after regulation time.
The Bearcats finished the season strong, going 3-1 in their final four games with wins over Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech.
Quietly, things were looking up for Sam Houston State University.
Their performance in Week 1 was anything but quiet, however.
The Bearcats pulled off a major upset in their opening game, beating Rice University after coming from double-digit deficits by a final score of 34-14.
This week's game against UCF won't be that easy, as they're a team many fans project as a favorite to make the Big 12 finals.
The Golden Knights will not be tested much in Week 1 against New Hampshire, and coach Gus Malzahn will be happy with the 57-3 victory.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson was brought in from Arkansas to lead Malzahn's offense and drew plenty of praise in the offseason, with the former Auburn coach comparing Jefferson to Cam Newton.
But this should be a bit of a test for the former Razorback.
The Bearcats used the transfer portal to improve a defensive line that was rated average last year, and that was evident in Week 1 when they held Rice to under 50 yards on the ground.
They likely won't be able to replicate that against Jefferson and star running back RJ Harvey, but it was an encouraging performance heading into the trip to the bounce house.
Another advantage for the Bearcats is that this will be Jefferson's second game in the new system.
Jefferson has all the tools to lead this UCF team to great things, but it may take time.
Sam Houston State's offense struggled to get going last year, but new quarterback Hunter Watson made a smooth transition from JUCO to FBS in Week 1.
Watson, who led Iowa Western to a national title in 2023, completed 16 of 27 for 229 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover-worthy play.
He was able to rely on an experienced group of receivers and was also aided by a stellar running game that gained 178 yards on 46 carries. You rely a lot on the rushing attack in this situation, and when you're rooting for a team that's losing by a large margin, you want to keep the clock moving.
Do you bet on college football?
There's just too much to like about Sam Houston State's first game, and their game late last year, to write them off as 21.5-point underdogs against a team that will be under immense pressure to get into a rhythm before conference play begins Sept. 14 against TCU.
Expect the Bearcats to hold on to this win and don't hesitate to bet on the money line for the first half, the Bearcats could surprise the Knights.
Betting: Sam Houston State +21.5 (-110, Caesars)
