Bitcoin investors should prepare for a “seasonal struggle” in September, according to Bitcoin financial services platform NYDIG, as the month has historically seen the lowest average returns.
“Unfortunately, near-term catalysts for Bitcoin are scarce at present.” Written Greg Cipollaro, head of global research at NYDIG, said in a market update on September 10th:
Cipollaro added that Bitcoin investors may just have to focus on very specific macroeconomic trends in the coming weeks and look for a few catalysts outside of the cryptocurrency.
“Most catalysts are related to macroeconomic data (inflation, unemployment, GDP growth) or monetary policy decisions (FOMC interest rate decisions) and very few are specific to cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin (BTC) rose just over 3% on the day, buoyed by strong performances from the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, both of which closed up 1.16% on September 9th.
Bitcoin rose 3.1% in one day as the stock market rallied. Source: CoinGecko
Several commentators have noted that September was the worst month in history for Bitcoin price volatility, with the largest cryptocurrency posting an average monthly loss of 5.9% in September over the 13 years since 2011.
Bitcoin's average monthly loss in September since 2011 is -5.9%. Source: NYDIG
According to NYDIG data, the fourth quarter of the year (with less than three weeks remaining) has been Bitcoin’s strongest months, with October and November recording average gains of 16.1% and 40.6%, respectively.
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Cipollaro said the most “pressing” concern for the cryptocurrency market is the upcoming US presidential election in November.
While former President Donald Trump “made a name for himself” as a crypto-friendly candidate, little is known about Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on digital assets, which is likely to lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in the near term.
“While it is impossible to predict which candidate will win the election, November could be a key moment for the industry, but until then, Bitcoin may be at the mercy of broader market conditions,” Cipollaro said.
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