As the anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre approaches, and hopes for a ceasefire and hostage agreement fade, it's worth considering who stands to gain from the continued conflict: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former President Donald Trump, and Iran.
In May, I argued that Netanyahu and Sinwar have a shared interest in prolonging the war. Four months later, while some tactical details have changed, that central argument remains: There's no end in sight, despite seemingly unyielding efforts by the Biden administration, Egypt and Qatar.
Many, especially in Israel, blame Netanyahu for moving the goalposts and belatedly insisting on maintaining control of the Philadelphia corridor, but there is no ignoring the fact that Yahya Sinwar also has no intention of reaching a ceasefire or ending the war.
In the aftermath of the July 31 Israeli assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (to which Iran has yet to respond strongly against Israeli or softer Jewish targets), Sinwar has become the undisputed political and military leader of Hamas. But he remains hidden and cannot emerge. Sinwar knows his time is nearing its end. Israel is plotting to assassinate him, and Sinwar could easily become a target for Arab countries, perhaps Egypt, the UAE, or Saudi Arabia, which are not supporting Hamas in this war because they recognize the threat Iran poses.
The ceasefire would be a welcome respite for the people of Gaza, and the prisoner exchange would ease the small but growing whispers against Hamas, but it could also lead to a challenge to Sinwar's leadership, especially in the West Bank. But Sinwar has nothing to gain from the agreement and will likely remain in hiding.
We tend to forget that Hamas is driven by a religious ideology that is at odds with Western liberalism, which is why Sinwar has little hesitation in sacrificing thousands of people in the name of the “cause.”
At the same time, some argue that Hamas is winning the war and Israel's global reputation is in tatters. Gaza envelope There are no Israelis in the areas bordering the Gaza Strip, and Hezbollah shelling in the north has forced more than 100,000 people to stay in their homes.
The personal costs of keeping hundreds of thousands of reservists on duty are bankrupting Israeli families and businesses. Rating agencies have lowered Israel's sovereign credit rating, along with those of the country's four largest banks, which will lead to higher borrowing costs even after the war. The conflict It is said to be costly Israel is about $68 billion.
Like Sinwar, Netanyahu has no intention of ending the war. He knows that if a deal is made, the far-right nationalists in his coalition government, especially Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, would quit the government. The two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Judaism, are much more flexible on both the hostage deal and the ceasefire and would vote in favor.
But Netanyahu knows that if a deal goes through, it would mean the end of his political career because it would topple his government and necessitate new elections, so he has little incentive to push through the deal and is prepared to put the lives of the Israeli hostages at risk. Existential Threat Countries like Iran continue to express concern.
Many Israeli strategists have laughed at Netanyahu's assertion that giving up control of the Philadelphia Corridor for up to 42 days would be a threat to Israel's existence. Nadav Argaman, a former Shin Bet chief appointed by Netanyahu, said: It is called Netanyahu's speech outlining the Philadelphia controversy was “the greatest act this city has ever seen.” Argaman also said Netanyahu's government is a disaster and that Netanyahu is driven by purely political motives.
American politics also play a role in why Netanyahu doesn't want to enter into a hostage or ceasefire deal right now. Netanyahu is buying time in the hope that Trump will win the presidential election, while a ceasefire or hostage deal would probably work in Kamala Harris' favor. Netanyahu thinks he can act without pressure from the Trump administration. I don't know if that's true, but it's certainly part of Netanyahu's thinking.
Finally, Iran's “axis of resistance” — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias — has proven durable and effective. Iran has also so far prevented the formation of a Sunni-Israeli coalition that would challenge Iranian power.
Tip O'Neill once said that all politics is local. In the Gaza conflict, one might say that all politics is personal. What a shame.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was Adjunct Professor of Israeli Legal Studies at Georgetown University Law Center.
