Texas State will be a real threat to represent the College Football Playoff in Group 5. The Bobcats' offense was simply dominant in their 49-10 victory over UTSA.
But Arizona isn't bad either.
Star running back Cam Scattlebo led the Sun Devils to a 40-point win over Wyoming and a touchdown win over Mississippi State to improve to 2-0.
The two teams meet Thursday night in a non-conference game in San Marcos, Texas, with Arizona State coming out on top by a narrow margin.
Let's analyze the matchup and offer our predictions and forecasts.
Arizona State vs Texas State odds
| team | Spread the word | Money Line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | -2 (-108) | -125 | 60 (-108) |
| Texas | +2 (-112) | +105 | 60 (-112) |
Arizona State vs. Texas State Predictions
(7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Sure, the Sun Devils beat an SEC team last week, but they shouldn't have won that game.
Mississippi State outgained Arizona State by over 100 total yards (415 to 292) and had a much higher success rate (48% to 43%).
If the Sun Devils hadn't recovered both Bulldogs fumbles, they probably would have been up 1-1 heading into Thursday's game.
They also likely went into Thursday's matchup as underdogs.
My power ratings give Texas State a one-point home-field advantage and a three-point advantage over current market value.
The Bobcats return nine starters from a 2023 offensive line that averaged 37 points per game (11th nationally) and ranked 15th nationally in success rate (48%).
Coach GJ Kine achieved great results on the offensive side.
Top back Ismail Mahdi returns coming off a 1,300-yard season, and three of the five starting offensive linemen also return, filling even more holes.
The Bobs ranked in the top 20 nationally in rushing success rate and explosiveness last season.
After two games, it looks like the offense might be better than last year after replacing quarterback TJ Finley with Jordan McCloud, who completed 68% of his passes for 3,600 yards at James Madison in 2023.
Texas State is tied for fifth nationally in pass plays of 30 or more yards (six) through the first two weeks.
McCloud has been nearly perfect (68% completion for 547 yards and five touchdowns), while Maddie and backup Lincoln Pare have combined for more than 300 yards rushing at about six yards per attempt.
The Bobcats are in top form and should overwhelm an Arizona State defense that ranked 122nd in the nation in passing completion percentage last season, including 130th.
Meanwhile, Arizona State's defense shows no signs of improving.
Only four starters return from last year's team, so they'll be relying heavily on transfers in the front seven.
Mississippi State has a pass-heavy offense and understandably didn't get many rushing yards (24) in their Week 1 loss to Arizona State, but veteran quarterback Blake Shapen helped Mississippi State gain nearly nine yards per pass attempt (85th percentile) and 0.37 EPA per dropback (84th percentile).
Imagine what McLeod can do on Thursday night.
I'm worried about Texas State's defense against Skattev, as the Bobcats were awful last season and the Sun Devils' star back has already gained over 300 rushing yards in two games at more than seven yards per attempt.
But nine starters return from last year's Texas State defense, including five of the top eight defensive linemen, and the Bobcats should improve as the season progresses with added experience.
A more experienced front seven has already shown progress: UTSA gained just 66 yards on 30 rushing attempts in a tough 10-point game last Saturday.
The Bobcats are likely more vulnerable to pass plays, especially chunk pass plays, given that they ranked 126th in explosiveness last season, but there's doubt that Arizona State will be able to throw the ball.
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New QB1 Sam Leavitt completed just 57% of his passes through two games.
Against Mississippi State, he completed 10 of 20 attempts for 69 yards, 3.5 yards per attempt and -0.53 EPA (5th percentile) per dropback.
At the very least, I’m betting on the better quarterback (McCloud) in Thursday’s home game.
Arizona State vs. Texas State Predictions
Arizona State is overrated coming into Thursday's matchup, and I'm going to downplay them as a favorite on the road against a more complete and well-rounded Texas State team.
The Bobcats can run and pass and seem to have momentum with their front 7. I'm not sure Arizona State can do anything other than ground-and-pound behind Skattebo against less favorable opponents.
choose: Texas State +1.5 (-112, DraftKings)
