The WNBA playoffs were determined with the New York Liberty receiving home-court advantage as the No. 1 seed and the Minnesota Lynx receiving the No. 2 seed.
The playoffs begin Sunday, and all eyes will be on rookie Caitlin Clark, who helped lead Indiana to its first postseason appearance in the last eight years.
The Fever enter as the sixth seed.
But with the regular season now over, it's tough to make the case that anyone outside the top four seeds will win, especially considering that since 2016, when the W was contested with eight teams, a team higher than the No. 2 seed has won just one other time (the No. 6 Chicago Sky in 2021).
But there is one horse whose odds are completely wrong when you consider his track record against the favorites.
WNBA Championship Odds
| team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty | +130 |
| Las Vegas Aces | +250 |
| Minnesota Lynx | +350 |
| Connecticut Sun | +750 |
| Indiana Fever | 20/1 |
| Seattle Storm | 30/1 |
| Phoenix Mercury | 125/1 |
| Atlanta Dream | 250/1 |
Lynx overlooked in MVP race
Minnesota's Napheesa Collier (20.3 points, 9.8 rebounds) would have been the overwhelming MVP winner if star A'ja Wilson hadn't had the greatest individual season in WNBA history.
Not only did Wilson become the first player to score 1,000 points in a season, she also set the league record for rebounds in a season, passing Sky rookie Angel Reese who had set the record three weeks before suffering a season-ending injury.
Despite Wilson stuffing the stat sheet every night, Las Vegas is off to a sluggish start with a 6-6 record.
The Aces won 12 of their next 18 games, but the team was still missing something.
In 2023, the Aces posted an astounding +15.3 net rating during the regular season and won their second consecutive title.
They led the league with a defensive rating of 97.7, but the ratings of the top four defensive teams this season range from 94.5 to 96.2. Las Vegas ranks fifth in this category, 3.5 points behind Seattle.
Recently, the Ace has returned to his defensive roots.
In their last eight games, they have held opponents to 80 or fewer points and posted their best defensive rating (93.4) during that time.
Still, even though the Aces are the two-time defending champions, their odds of winning at +250 (ESPN Bet) shouldn't be second-lowest behind the Liberty (+130).
Schedule sets Minnesota up for strong run
As the Lynx are the No. 2 seed, they will avoid playing against the Liberty and Aces, arguably the two best teams until the WNBA Finals.
As the top seed, New York could face Las Vegas in the second round.
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Minnesota has a combined 6-2 record against New York and Las Vegas, including a 94-89 win in the Commissioner's Cup in front of a pro-Liberty crowd at UBS Arena.
With the current odds, the Liberty has an implied chance of winning the title at 43.5% and the Aces at 28.6%. Minnesota's odds are +350 with an implied chance of 22.2%.
I usually like odds of +380, but even +350 and above are worth considering in this market.
Recommendation: Lynx to win WNBA Championship (+350, ESPN Betting)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Michael Arinze writes for the New York Post and handicappers most major sports. During his betting career, he has won two 15-leg teasers and one 12-leg parlay including eight Little League World Series games. Most recently, he correctly predicted the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and Copa America.
