Arizona State's 3-0 start has been buoyed by good luck on fourth downs (5 of 6) and turnovers (+6 margin).
The overrated Sun Devils likely would have lost to Texas State last week if not for three costly turnovers by the Bobcats.
Conversely, Texas Tech is likely underrated after a fortuitous loss to Washington State in Week 2.
The Red Raiders outgained the Cougars by nearly 100 yards but were stung by four turnovers and a 1-of-5 success rate on fourth down.
Cam Scattlebo is one of the best running backs in the country, but I still don't have confidence in Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devil passing attack, which isn't ranked in the top 100 nationally in EPA per dropback.
That will hurt on Saturday, considering Texas Tech's secondary is far weaker than its front seven.
Similarly, I still don't believe in Arizona State's secondary, which ranks 87th nationally in Pro Football Focus' coverage rating and 97th in pass completion percentage allowed.
That will be an issue on Saturday, given Zach Kitley's explosive pass-heavy offense and Veran Morton's impressive early performance (66% completion for 974 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions).
choose: Texas Tech – 3.5.
Rutgers (+3.5) beats Virginia Tech
The Hokies have a great defensive line that helps support Brent Pry's aggressive, Havoc-oriented pass defense.
But Greg Schiano’s team is built to withstand pressure.
The Scarlet Knights utilize a veteran offensive line to run a rush-heavy, ball-protecting attack and are consistently one of the Havoc's top offensive teams.
If they can withstand the Hokies' pressure, they can exploit their porous rush defense, which ranks Virginia Tech 94th nationally in EPA per rush allowed.
Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt's hybrid triple option had 180 yards rushing in a Week 1 upset win over the Hokies.
I believe Ahsan Kaliakmanis, Kyle Monangai and Rutgers can do the same.
In contrast, Virginia Tech's offense hasn't seemed as consistent or dynamic as hoped.
The Hokies haven't generated enough sustained down-to-down offense (95th nationally in success rate), instead relying entirely on Kyron Draughns' deep shooting (5th in explosiveness).
But that won't work against Rutgers, who have an elite, experienced secondary that ranks among the top 15 EPA units in dropbacks allowed, pass completion percentage and Pro Football Focus coverage rating.
Utah (-2.5) beats Oklahoma State
Cam Rising is expected to play Saturday against Stillwater and that should be enough to help Utah win a Big 12 road game.
I had high hopes for the Cowboys coming into the year, but their inconsistent play in Week 2 against Arkansas has me worried.
They won after a furious double-overtime comeback, but should have lost considering the Hogs gave up 650 yards of total offense while holding the Pokes to 380.
Do you bet on college football?
Taylen Green dominated Oklahoma State's secondary (8.5 yards per dropback), and the Razorbacks defensive line dominated Doak Award winner Ollie Gordon (49 yards on 17 carries, 2.9 yards per carry, 24% success rate), turning Oklahoma State's strengths into weaknesses.
If the Cowboys can't run the ball against Arkansas, they should do even worse against Utah.
And if the Cowboys can't stop Green, they'll be in even more trouble against the Rising.
last week: 1-2. LSU (L), Washington (L), Indiana (W)
2024 season: 3-6.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. Specializing in college sports and baseball, McGrath is an avid fan of the Vermont Catmounts, Miami Marlins and any team that loses at home. He lost the Miami Miracle in 2018 but bounced back four years later by betting Sandy Alcantara, a 40/1 long shot, to win the National League Cy Young Award.
