One of the most talked-about phenomena in this truly unprecedented presidential election has been the enormous and rapid surge of support that has occurred since Vice President Kamala Harris rose to the top of the list of candidates after President Biden withdrew.
As I wrote in early August, polls began to reflect a “Harris surge” shortly after Harris secured the nomination.
But we note that, while there was genuine enthusiasm for Harris' candidacy, especially among key Democratic bases, it is just as likely that the polls are showing a honeymoon period rather than a true and sustained surge in support.
Two months after Harris became the Democratic nominee, and with less than 50 days until Americans vote, it's natural to wonder whether the “Harris surge” will last.
These questions arise for two main reasons: First, Harris' approval ratings have remained stable over the past two months, with no real change in the race despite her impressive debate performances and more time to market herself to voters.
Second, while Harris undoubtedly boosted support and enthusiasm among Democrats, it's less clear whether she won over independents or swing voters — virtually all of Harris's gains came from Democrats, meaning the polls may simply reflect support from voters who would have voted Democratic anyway.
This is not to discount Harris, who has stepped up to the plate in an unprecedented role, regaining all the ground Biden lost to Trump, overtaking him in some polls and generating excitement among his base that didn't exist when Biden was the nominee.
Rather, it is to point out that despite many factors working in Harris' favor – her undeniable victories in the debates, Trump's insistence on running a divisive (rather than issue-based) campaign, and numerous celebrity endorsements – the race is effectively deadlocked.
In other words, despite virtually everything going well for Harris on the campaign trail, the election remains close and she has not been able to distance herself from Trump.
In fact, according to the New York TimesWrittenTwo-thirds of voters (67%) thought Harris performed well, while only 40% said the same about Trump, but the presidential race remains deadlocked, with each candidate receiving an approval rating of 47% in the latest New York Times Siena News poll.vote.
Harris' struggle to widen her lead is reflected in every poll compiled by RealClearPolitics, which ran from just before Tuesday through Sept. 20. average Harris' lead has grown by less than 1 percentage point. She now leads 49 percent to 47 percent.
Importantly, Harris' 49 percent is lower than Biden's four years ago, when he barely won the electoral college based on fewer than 50,000 votes in key states but won 51 percent of the popular vote.
Additionally, national polls showing Harris likely leading the race do not align with data from battleground states that will ultimately decide this election.
Specifically, consider the following poll:Morning consultation Harris leads Trump by 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent) in what appears to be an unusual poll. Create high clickthrough rate news headlines And it contributes to the “Harris surge” narrative even if data from battleground states shows a completely different result.
Harris is leading in must-win “blue wall” states,Michigan(+2),Pennsylvania(+1), andWisconsin(+1) — Trump is leading by the same marginGeorgiaandArizonaNorth Carolina was tied (+2 each), according to the RealClearPolitics average.
What's noteworthy is that in no state is either candidate's lead outside the margin of error.
In the polls taken together, Harris has clearly helped close the gap in Democratic enthusiasm, but ABC-Ipsos found that enthusiasm among Democrats increased by 26 percentage points.vote— this has not been conveyed to the broader electorate.
Moreover, there are other reasons to doubt whether any momentum Harris has actually gained will be sustainable.
Alexander Bolton wrote in the publication: “Behind the public's jubilation over Vice President Harris's meteoric rise, Democrats are privately fretting about her chances of beating former President Trump.”
Similarly, Amy Parnes quoted Democratic strategists who noted that while Harris has been successful in “rallying her base,” they questioned whether the vice president “can appeal to the voters that Democrats have always needed to win.”
Certainly, every vote counts in what is expected to be a close election, and if Harris can increase voter turnout, she will have a better chance of winning.
However, according to an analysis of opinion polls The Washington PostHarris has primarily benefited from increased support from traditional Democratic voters, not from new swing voters, which isn't inherently a bad thing, but far from a true “Harris surge,” the polls suggest merely reflect a returning Democratic base.
After all, it's striking that the sense of joy and positivity among Democrats has increased dramatically since Harris' nomination, and that could very well help her win, especially in such a close election.
But based on the data, it seems too early to declare that Harris has a truly strong position against Trump: It remains to be seen whether she can win by appealing to swing voters and moderates, or whether she has simply energized her base.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are partners and pollsters at Shawn Cooperman Research, a New York-based polling firm. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”
