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Consumer confidence plummeted in September, its biggest drop in more than three years, as Americans grew increasingly concerned about the state of the economy, particularly the labor market.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 this month, down from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August.
Shoppers visit the new KC Market location of kosher grocery store in Boynton Beach, Fla., on Wednesday, April 10, 2024. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than three years in September. (Amy Beth Bennett/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images/Getty Images)
“September's decline was the biggest since August 2021, with all five components of the index worsening,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Consumers' assessment of current business conditions turned negative and their views of current labor market conditions weakened further.”
“Consumers also became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less optimistic about future business conditions and future incomes,” Peterson added.
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The current situation index, which measures consumers' current assessment of business and the labor market, fell more than 10 points this month to 124.3, while the expectations index, based on respondents' short-term outlook, fell 4.6 points to 81.7.
The Conference Board noted that an expectations index below 80 typically signals a recession is on the way.
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Consumers' current economic outlook also worsened this month, according to the report, as did respondents' assessment of the labor market.
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Even though inflation eased to a three-year low in August, consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 5.2 percent this month, and the Conference Board reported that mentions of inflation and prices dominated respondents' written comments.
The most common comments consumers made in The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey were about inflation and prices. (Photo by Brendan Smiarowski/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)
“The deterioration across the major components of the index likely reflects consumer concerns about the labor market and a reaction to reduced work hours, slowing salary growth and fewer job openings — even though the labor market remains fairly healthy with low unemployment, few layoffs and higher wages,” Peterson said.
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“The percentage of consumers who expect a recession within the next 12 months remains low, but the percentage of consumers who believe the economy is already in a recession has increased slightly.”
