Baylor shouldn't have lost to Colorado last week. Leading 31-24 with less than four minutes left, the Bears missed a game-clinching 45-yard field goal.
Shedur Sanders then completed a 43-yard Hail Mary touchdown to tie the game as time expired.
After Colorado took the lead in overtime, Baylor responded by causing Dominique Richardson to fumble on the goal line.
Conversely, BYU shouldn't have beaten Kansas State last week.
The Cougars were outgained by 241 and 416 total yards, but won thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns and two short-field touchdown drives off interceptions.
Because of these bland results, the Bears are underrated going into Saturday's home game against BYU.
Baylor's offense has improved since switching from Dequan Finn to Sawyer Robertson, completing 64 percent of his passes, 9.3 YPA, three touchdowns, and no picks over the past two weeks. .
Robertson helped lead the ground game, with the Bears rushing for 396 yards in his two starts.
BYU's passing offense shined with Jake Retzlaff, but the Cougars can't run the ball and will be without top back LJ Martin on Saturday.
Baylor's experienced defense improved once Dave Aranda started calling plays.
The Bears rank 5th in completion percentage allowed, including 25th in EPA per play allowed and 4th in pass completion percentage allowed.
That doesn't bode well for Retzlaff's one-dimensional offense.
Pick: Baylor -3.
Oklahoma State (+5) vs. Kansas State
I'm not confident in Oklahoma State this season, mainly because the Cowboys can't establish a run attack despite having Ollie Gordon II and an experienced line.
When the Cowboys can't run, they have to rely on the volatile Alan Bowman, who struggles with turnovers and development.
But Bowman hasn't been bad this year, with the Pokes ranking in the top 40 in pass completion percentage and EPA per dropback.
And his deficiencies may not matter against a lackluster Kansas State sophomore who ranks 74th in pass completion percentage allowed and is being torn to shreds by chunk plays.
Conversely, Oklahoma State's 3-3-5 defense is vulnerable to chunk passing plays and ranks 130th in explosiveness allowed.
But Kansas State's rush-heavy offense wasn't built to solve that problem.
The Wildcats' special teams unit is also a concern, ranking 125th in average net field position (-7.3).
Penn State (-18) vs. Illinois
Illinois is overrated after starting 4-0.
The Illini were fortunate to win games against Kansas State and Nebraska, but needed a plus-4 turnover margin to get both wins.
If the Illini go 2-2, they will likely score well over 20 points on the road at Penn State.
Penn State's new offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, is a wizard.
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He developed Drew Allard into an elite quarterback and paired him with a dominant two-headed tailback monster in Nicholas Singleton and Caitron Allen.
The Lions should pour it in against a perfectly average defense. Because that's James Franklin's job.
Penn State is a double-digit championship favorite with a 35-21-2 record against the spread under the direction of its longtime head coach.
last week: 3-0. Texas Tech (W), Rutgers (W), Utah State (W)
2024 season: 6-6.
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is an avid fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins, and underdog home teams. He was put on the wrong foot in the Miami Miracle in 2018, but redeemed himself four years later by hitting Sandy Alcantara with a 40/1 long shot to win the National League Cy Young Award.
