IThe golden rule of politics is that national leaders do not interfere in the elections of other countries. Tell that to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who jumped into the midst of the US presidential election with both feet in size 10 combat boots last week. The resulting thud could be heard as far away as Kiev (perhaps that was the point).
Visit an important Pennsylvania ammunition factory, Ukraine's president, tired of war, tells Republican candidate Donald Trump As for the appeaser's policy of cutting off arms supplies and accepting peace on President Vladimir Putin's terms, he was only talking behind his back. And Trump's eccentric running mate, J.D. Vance, was downright “dangerous,” he said.
Mr. Zelensky's outspoken comments and heated embrace with Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania governor and aide to Mr. Trump's Democratic rival Kamala Harris, made Republicans vomit. House Speaker Mike Johnson denounced the trip as a “partisan campaign event aimed at supporting Democrats.”
President Trump's loud-mouthed son, Donald Trump Jr., was also enraged by popular President Zelensky's harsh intervention. “Does a foreign leader who has received billions of dollars from American taxpayers have the guts to come to our country and attack the Republican ticket for president? Shameful!” he got angry.
All of this is funny, but it's indicative of a broader and problematic modern phenomenon. In an increasingly interconnected world, to put a twist on a familiar expression, all politics is global. The war in Ukraine will be important in the US presidential election. Home to many Ukrainian and Polish Americans Too close to call Pennsylvania. Their votes could determine who wins the state and, by extension, the White House.
It's much the same with the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where Joe Biden's perceived tacit approval of Israel's criminally aggressive far-right government has alienated Democrats and independent U.S. voters. I'm letting you do it. Conversely, the future approach of Trump and Harris will influence the calculations of leaders in Jerusalem and Tehran. Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bow his head? US-led pressure for a full ceasefire agreementOr will we continue to fight in hopes that a less scrupulous, more ideologically fit Trump will win in November? No doubt President Putin is following a similar thought process, seeking a way out of the quagmire of the Ukraine situation with President Trump's support while claiming victory.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian extended a notable olive branch to the West at the United Nations General Assembly last week, proposing to revive the nuclear deal destroyed by President Trump in 2018. He understands that if President Trump returns, the fortunes of Hezbollah allies in Lebanon will change. That may be just the twilight of his worries. Direct confrontation between Israel, Iran, and the United States will be back on the agenda.
No two wars are the same, and that also applies to Ukraine and the Middle East. But American politics aside, some other external aspects are common to both countries. One is the growing divide between the West and countries in the Global South (Brazil, Mexico, India, etc.) over how best to deal with conflict, highlighted at the recent United Nations General Assembly.
This conflict partly reflects the paralysis that has rendered the UN Security Council, driven primarily by the United States, Russia and China, and chronically unreformed and unexpanded, unfit for purpose. Ceasefire resolutions in both wars have been repeatedly and irresponsibly vetoed. Multilateralism is taking its final steps, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warns.
However, the main criticism leveled at Western governments is their double standard of blaming the massive civilian casualties in Ukraine while continuing to arm Israel, which has inflicted similar destruction. It is difficult to argue against what is being pursued. It fosters a broader narrative of Western exceptionalism that undermines cooperative action on climate change, for example.
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What else do the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon have in common? Both are economically disastrous for everyone involved. Russia has suffered severely, partly due to Western sanctions, but mostly due to the war's huge financial costs. Israel's GDP contracted by 4.1% According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the recession has continued since October 7th. There is no need to go into detail about the extreme Palestinian suffering in Gaza.
Both conflicts are diplomatic graveyards. Frustrated Egyptian and Qatari mediators in the Gaza Strip have all but given up. I feel sorry for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has visited the Middle East many times and returned empty-handed each time. Türkiye, Brazil and China have floated a peace plan for Ukraine. Zelenskiy has a “winning plan.” None are thriving.
Actors in both conflicts continue to disregard the Geneva Conventions and international humanitarian law to a degree that is perhaps unprecedented. Civilians are routinely targeted, but lying officials flatly deny targeting civilians. Tens of thousands of people died. Hostages have been taken in both conflicts. No one will be saved. Even more so in Gaza 16,000 children were killed.
The impunity with which war leaders have been treated is also shocking. President Putin was indicted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court (ICC) last year. Not only has he not been arrested; He recently received the red carpet treatment in MongoliaICC signatory.
Similarly, the ICC Chief Prosecutor in May requested arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders on war crimes charges. Not published yet. why? A July ruling by the United Nations' International Court of Justice declaring Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory illegal and ordering its withdrawal is being contemptuously ignored.
Brutal post-invasion suppression of dissent, free speech, and independent media in Russia, as well as hunting and assassinations Critics of foreign governments Israeli military deliberately found echoes Killing and expulsion of journaliststhe recent assumption of special powers by the government; Closure of important media outlets Al Jazeera etc.
These are worrying precedents for future wars. Now more than ever, modern warmongers like Putin and Netanyahu are using conflict to consolidate their power, ignoring democratic responsibilities, tearing up international rulebooks, breaking taboos, and committing acts of inhumanity. Pushing the limits. War justifies injustice. War becomes an end in itself.
Simon Tisdall is the Observer's foreign affairs critic
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