Florida has been the ultimate battleground state in previous election cycles, but a new poll suggests it could be back to being a strong state in 2024.
A study by Florida-based Victory Insights released on Monday found that the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel. All of Powell's Senate races have shown to be too close to call.
These numbers are particularly noteworthy given that Republicans outnumber Democrats on Florida's registered voter rolls by more than 1 million people.
Due to rounding, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided. Scott leads the Democratic candidate 45% to 44%, with 12% undecided.
There are dynamics in both races that keep them close and could make them unpredictable until the end.
The pollster points out that the “overwhelming majority” of people who are undecided between Trump and Harris have no party affiliation at all.
But Scott's problem lies on the Republican side. Mr. Trump trusts 94% of registered Republicans, but only 88% of them say they support Mr. Scott's re-election. Worth noting: The senator received less than 85% support against two protest candidates in last month's primary, so that number is tied to election performance.
As for Mucarsel-Powell, she garnered a 26% approval rating and a 25% disapproval rating, even though only 65% of voters knew who she was and mail-in voting had already begun. There is.
While voters may not know much about the Democrats in this race, Scott has the opposite problem. They know him very well. The two-term senator and former governor has an approval rating of 32% and a disapproval rating of 43%.
Further data from the survey suggests that Gov. Ron DeSantis and his two big priorities for November are in trouble.
In fact, the governor is stuck here with an approval rating of 45% and a disapproval rating of 45%, a significant drop from his approval rating of nearly 60% in 2022.
And it seems likely that the two constitutional amendments he opposes will pass.
Amendment 3, which would legalize possession of 3 ounces of cannabis flower and 5 grams of concentrate, was supported by 54%, 29% opposed and 17% undecided. If about a third of those in that last category supported the amendment, it would have the 60% support needed for passage.
DeSantis' efforts to kill it appear to have had little effect: 39% of Republican voters supported it, while 43% opposed it.
The Fourth Amendment, which would remove state abortion bans passed since the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, was supported by 50% of respondents, 29% opposed and 21% undecided. Only 23% of Republicans support the bill, which would override Florida's current ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, except in exceptional cases.
