Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance are hours away from their first and only vice presidential debate.
As the latest Fox News Power Rankings reveal, Mr. Vance starts tonight with a lead on the economy and immigration, and Mr. Walz has the lead on abortion.
Fox News Power Ranks issues and quality tracker. (Fox News)
Policy is the key to winning the debate
Vice presidential candidates don't get as much attention as their bosses in debates, but as Fox News' Arnon Mishkin discussed Monday, they've changed the direction of at least six elections over the past 50 years.
Most of the time, these arguments are won on policy. Voters don't know as much about these candidates as former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, so they don't have to choose.
A smart strategy for these vice presidential candidates is to focus on the major issues at stake and how the administration will solve them.
FOX News power rankings: Harris rises, Senate Republicans take control
This is especially true for Walz, as the Harris campaign continues to lag behind on the economy and immigration. Mr. Vance, meanwhile, has struggled with low popularity ratings, and his challenge is to hammer home the most popular parts of Mr. Trump's policies and avoid stepping into the culture war trenches.
You can also earn style points. Many voters will only see this debate in short clips on social media, so acting like a policy wonk is less likely than ever to get the job done.
Trump has a clear lead on the economy and immigration. Harris is strong on abortion.
Former President Donald Trump has topped the economics category in the Fox News Power Rankings. (Fox News)
Trump continues to hold an advantage on two of the top three issues in this election campaign. It has a nine-point lead on the economy and an 11-point lead on immigration.
These numbers have changed little since the Harris-Trump debate. When the Power Rankings last looked at major issues in August, the former president led by 8 places on the economy and 13 places on immigration.
Former President Donald Trump ranks first on immigration on Fox News' power rankings. (Fox News)
Harris is far ahead on abortion. She has a 17 point lead in this issue, which is also a small move since the last tracker (Harris +18).
Vice President Kamala Harris leads the Fox News power rankings on abortion. (Fox News)
This tracker includes polls from Fox News. quinnipiac, CNN/SSRS, NBC News and New York Times/Siena.
After the debate with Harris, Trump lost one point in the race and the vice president gained one. These modest changes reflect changes since the first debate in 2020.
Taken together, these results suggest that Trump's slight decline was due to style, not content.
Conversely, while Harris has won debates and held an advantage on abortion, she has not consistently closed the gap on issues, especially on immigration.
Top 3 issues in the latest FOX News poll. (Fox News)
This is not ideal for her, given that the economy (38%) and immigration (17%) are two of the top three issues for voters. A recent FOX News national poll found that these issues and abortion (16%) were the only issues that double-digit percentages of voters cited as the “most important” issue in deciding their vote.
Harris leads on most minor issues, but Trump leads on security and foreign policy.
According to the same survey, Harris maintains strong leads on issues outside of the top three. This includes health care, supporting the middle class, and climate change. These are the “vital” issues that the left has relied on to draw out basic voters in previous elections.
More issues and traits from the Fox News Poll.
The Democratic nominee also has the lead in uniting the country and, consistent with his former pursuers, has the right temperament for the job.
Candidates are divided in their opinions on national security. Neither has an advantage in dealing with crises that endanger the country, nor in being the commander in chief, nor in deciding to use nuclear weapons. President Trump's temperamental flaws should give Harris an opportunity to lead on some of these qualities, but that hasn't happened.
National Security Poll. (Fox News)
Arnon Mishkin: JD Vance is a great debater and practices debate every Sunday.
Finally, voters support Trump on foreign policy. They have a 6 point lead in dealing with the Israel/Hamas war and an 8 point lead in the Ukraine/Russia war.
Opinion polls on foreign policy. (Fox News)
5 weeks until election night
Tuesday is discussion night. Walz and Vance will face off at an event hosted by CBS News in New York City. Fox News will simulcast the debate with special coverage anchored by Bret Baier and Martha McCollum at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Fox News Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by McCollum and Baier in October.
Voters can now cast their ballots in more than half of all states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
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Many voters are expected to vote early, but Election Day itself is just five weeks away.
