Two major counties in the Keystone State are expected to head to Donald Trump's column in November, which could mean the presidency itself is there, too.
That's the conclusion from a new poll of 420 voters in two index counties, Erie and Northampton, conducted on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1.
These counties, which include the city of Erie in the former case and the city of Easton in the latter case, have been predicted in past election cycles.
They supported Barack Obama twice, pushed back against Donald Trump in 2016, and jumped to Joe Biden in 2020. Now, they may be moving away from Kamala Harris and back into the fold of the Republican Party.
As polling firm Signal points out, these counties “favor Donald Trump by 1 point (49-48), even though voting has already begun and less than five weeks until Election Day. “I'm doing it.” The former president has an opportunity to “extend his lead” as voters continue to reveal their choices from now until Nov. 5.
Comparing Trump's performance to that of his successors in the White House, Trump's performance has increased by double digits. Half say the former president did a better job, but only 39% approve of Biden and Harris' record.
And despite mainstream media shielding the vice president from the level of criticism that Trump routinely receives, these voters are not fooled.
Harris is even worse than Trump in terms of approval ratings, with an eight-point lead compared to Trump's four-point lead. And among a key group of men under 55, Trump has a staggering 60-point lead (+36 approval rating, -24 for California Democrats).
One of the problems for Veep, Signal points out, is gaffe-prone Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who may be friendly with “school shooters” but not in Pennsylvania's lead counties. It is said that it is not considered.
“The recent buyer remorse expressed by Democrats over not choosing Gov. Josh Shapiro as their vice presidential running mate reflects the +1 lead for Harris and Shapiro tickets in these projected counties (48-47). This is evidenced by the 10-point net shift in support for Harris among swing voters in the Harris-Shapiro vs. Trump-Vance matchup. “With all eyes on Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris' decision is very likely to cost her the presidency,” Signal concluded.
Mr. Shapiro's favorability rating is +14, which is 12 points higher than Mr. Walz among all voters.
The working class is particularly dissatisfied with the Democratic ticket. Trump leads among union households, 57% to 41%, and is up 13 points among voters with five-digit salaries. However, Harris leads among people with annual incomes of $100,000 or more.
