Today is an unusually appropriate day to ask what will happen the day after the American presidential election, the first anniversary of the presidential election. Hamas's brutal attack killed Approximately 1,200 Israelis.
A year later, the Middle East has fallen into even greater turmoil. Israel declared war rebelled against Hamas and eviscerated Hezbollah; behead many of the leadersincluding Hassan Nasrallah.
How this conflict plays out is not the focus of this column. Rather, it is this: Will this election have as significant and profound an impact on America and its people as October 7th had on Israel and the region?
Will America elect its next president by November 6th? Will the election be contested like in 2020, when Donald Trump won? denied defeatcalling the vote “Rigged?” Are they similar? 2000when an election dispute over Florida votes made its way to the Supreme Court and was set to be decided in mid-December? Is it like the election of Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876? It wasn't resolved until March 2nd.three days before Inauguration Day because of a contest for 20 electors in Southern states?
Second, will there be violence? teeth January 6th riotWill it be repeated, perhaps on a much larger scale, following the certification of electoral votes on Capitol Hill?
Third, if there is no clear winner as of November 6, will the United States be resilient and patient enough to deal with any outcome?
Finally, will a foreign adversary exploit gross irregularities in voting to further disrupt America's political system?
Ominously, November 5thGuy Fawkes DayIn England, it marks the anniversary of the failed gunpowder plot to blow up Parliament in 1605. This election is so close, likely to be decided by a small number of states and dozens of districts, that a recount seems inevitable.
Imagine the year 2000 with steroids. A large court was held that year. Case of only one stateBush v. Gore is the major one. But will the U.S. legal and political system be able to resolve dozens of lawsuits in multiple states challenging the vote before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20?
In the case of a 269-269 tie, or a scenario in which no candidate reaches 270, the Electoral College votes cannot produce an outright winner. lower house Then you will choosewith the presidentsenate vice president. All kinds of pranks are possible here, depending on which political party controls each parliament.
Based on the procedures set forth in the Constitution, each state legislator only get one vote. One vote each for Wyoming and Vermont, and one vote each for Texas and California. States with evenly divided delegations could be forced to abstain. Even if a candidate wins a landslide victory in the national popular vote, he or she may still lose under this arcane process.
And if the Senate chooses a vice president, the next president and vice president could be from different parties. What will happen in practice? Given the fragility of divided government, it probably won't work.
If the process drags beyond January 20, the Speaker will:become acting president. It will definitely test the system and make governing even more difficult, especially since the country is so politically divided.
Will adversaries, particularly China and Russia, act to exploit such an outcome? Will they intervene to influence the outcome, much as the United States did in other regions during the Cold War? There is no doubt that they will and are already intervening. That's natural.
Russia would most likely benefit from cutting its workforce and leaving the U.S. to deal with the election chaos. But is it in the interests of China and Russia to maximize American disruption? If both believe that America is in decline, why not accelerate that decline? It is difficult to pinpoint exactly what either can do to advance this chaos.
Finally, when it comes to who should be president, will he prioritize Russia or China? Trump supporters say he will be tough on both and, like Joe Biden, he will prioritize China and Russia. By default, they claim that Kamala Harris is their favorite.
But Chinese and Russian leaders may disagree. To them, Harris is inexperienced and untested. In the face of a crisis, this lack of experience can lead them to overreact in an attempt to dispel any perceived weakness. That may be worrying.
There is no conclusion to be drawn other than that November 6th may be the day of reckoning.
Dr. Harlan Ullman, He is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and the principal author of the “Shock and Awe” military doctrine. His 12th book is “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How a massive destructive attack became a looming existential crisis for a divided nation and the entire world.. ”
