Pollster Nate Silver predicts in his latest election predictions that the White House race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris could remain close until Election Day, which is less than a month away. said that it was high.
“I've never seen an election where the odds were more like 50-50, and probably never will,” Silver writes in his book. column Published on Tuesday.
He argued that there were moments when the election appeared to be leaning in one direction, but “those turned out to be false starts.”
Silver noted that Harris' polling numbers spiked when she replaced President Biden as the top Democratic candidate in late July, but added, “Normally, this is one of the best races. At one point, that boost didn't last long, as her polls started going down after her party's convention during the voting period for the candidates. ”
The veteran pollster also said there was a time when election forecasts showed the race was tilting toward Trump.
Mr. Silver, the founder of ABC's FiveThirtyEight, said that after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Ms. Harris began to lose ground in high-quality national polls, experienced economic “headwinds,” and said that “the model We saw the lingering effects of the party convention bounce adjustments.” ”
“But the debate arose at this moment – and Harris won, re-establishing the roughly 3-point lead she had consistently held in national polls – the Electoral College was roughly 50/50. “It was close enough that Harris might have a slight advantage,” he wrote. column.
The pollster suggests that while news events could move the needle in either direction by Nov. 5, that chance is highly unlikely as the number of undecided voters continues to decline. did.
“Because there are so few undecided voters (on average nationally, Harris and Trump together win 95.5% of the vote, with third parties typically picking up an additional 1-2%), there is no real way to make policy decisions. Not enough votes to move it,” Silver wrote. . “And the polls aren't accurate enough to provide any more confidence.”
“This is also where the sports analogy fails. In elections, the 'final score' (the average of the last votes before voting day) is not necessarily correct,” he added.
The latest national poll released Tuesday by The New York Times and Siena College shows Harris with a 3-point lead over the former president, 49% to 46%.
The Vice President currently has a 3.3 percentage point lead over President Trump nationally, 49.8% to 46.5%, according to a poll compiled by Decision Desk's The Hill.
