Lane Kiffin finally hired the Ole Miss defense.
DT Walter Nolen, a transfer from Texas A&M, has a devastating record against the run.
Florida transfer DE Princely Umanmiehlen had 20 pressures and four sacks through five off-season games.
LB Chris Paul Jr., a transfer from Arkansas, is legitimately a top-10 FBS linebacker.
Many of the in-season metrics have been inflated following the blowout of FCS and G5 programs.
Still, the Rebels' defense passed the eye test last week against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to 3 points on 4.2 yards per play and -0.28 EPA (8th percentile) per play.
They sacked Lanoris-Sellers six times and Nolen recorded three.
This is the most important comparison in this match. That's because the same South Carolina offense that was ineffective against Ole Miss dropped 33 points and 430 yards on over seven yards per play against LSU's lackluster defense, which was close to an upset.
I have some concerns about how Ole Miss' offense has been so underwhelming in recent weeks.
But Jackson Dart gained over 10 yards per attempt last week against a top-10 South Carolina secondary, so I think he's a good bet against LSU, which ranks below 100 in national EPA in dropbacks and pass completion percentage. I look forward to crushing the secondary.
Garrett Nussmeyer leads LSU's strong aerial attack, but the Rebels are a more balanced two-way football team.
They will have to get some tough stops while shrugging off Brian Kelly's defense for 60 minutes and coming away with a convincing road win.
Pick: Ole Miss (-3.5).
California (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh
The overrated 5-0 Panthers will suffer a loss.
They should have lost to Cincinnati in Week 2 and lost to West Virginia in Week 3.
A turnaround in the final stages of the game won't happen anytime soon.
On the other hand, the underrated 3-2 Bears should get a big win.
They lost to Florida State in Week 4 despite outscoring the Seminoles by nearly 130 yards.
They lost to Miami last week despite holding a 35-10 lead at the half.
Cal's defense still has a lot of room for improvement, but the Bears boast a top-50 secondary in success rate and PFF coverage grade.
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Pitt runs a pass-heavy offense behind Eli Holstein, which should play to Cal's strength.
Cal has an All-ACC talent in Jadon Ott, but quarterback Fernando Mendoza is starting to make strides.
Gaining nearly 600 yards over the past two weeks against two solid secondaries, Cal's offense has slipped into the top 30 nationally in pass completion percentage.
That should be the key against a Pitt defense that ranks in the bottom 15 teams in EPA per dropback allowed.
I project the Panthers to be closer to a 1.5-point favorite as of Saturday, giving them a roughly 2-point advantage over Marquette.
last week: 3-0. Texas A&M (W), Vanderbilt (W), Minnesota (W)
2024 season: 9-9.
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Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is an avid fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins, and underdog home teams. He was put on the wrong foot in the Miami Miracle in 2018, but redeemed himself four years later by hitting Sandy Alcantara with a 40/1 long shot to win the National League Cy Young Award.
