Two battleground states that Donald Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2020 could be back in the column in 2024.
And if Redfield & Wilton's poll of voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania holds up when votes are counted in just over three weeks, Kamala Harris' path to the White House will be significantly improved. It may become narrower.
In 2020, the former president lost Georgia to Joe Biden by 0.23 points and Pennsylvania by 1.2 points.
This sample shows Trump gaining 1 point in Georgia, 48% to 47%. and Pennsylvania, up 2 points, 48% to 46%.
In both cases, the former president has gained a lead he didn't have the last time pollsters polled him, with a tie in Georgia and a lead in Pennsylvania with Harris leading.
The shift in momentum is significant, given that these states have a total of 35 electoral votes. If Trump wins these and other states he would otherwise be expected to win, he would win 254 of the 270 states he needs, opening multiple paths to victory.
What's the easiest solution?
Winning North Carolina's 16 electoral votes would be enough to push the former Prez over the threshold.
Alternatively, if Trump wins any two of the remaining battleground states: Arizona (11 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Nevada (6 votes), and Wisconsin (10 votes), Trump will win the Electoral College. would be enough to win.
Trump's success in the two states examined here comes down to two relative phenomena.
In terms of attracting former Trump voters, she has done a better job of flipping those who voted for Biden in 2020 than Harris. And in some states in particular, the president is retaining more voters than the vice president is retaining Biden supporters.
Mr. Trump won 12% of 2020 Biden voters in Pennsylvania and 13% in Georgia, and Ms. Harris has converted 6% of former Trump supporters in the Keystone State. In Georgia, he won 11% of Trump's supporters four years ago, and is close to parity.
“Trump will hold 86% of 2020 voters in Georgia, rising to 90% in Pennsylvania. Harris will hold 82% of Georgia voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, Pennsylvania However, it is supported by 85% of voters,” the pollster said.
Inflation has been a major issue during the past four years under the Biden-Harris administration, with high cost of living bothering voters in both battleground states, with 43% of voters in Georgia and 45% in Pennsylvania They point to inflation as the most important issue for them.
Almost three-quarters of voters in both states say this is “very” important, which could mean people (including a small number of undecided voters) are checking their bank accounts before voting. It means that there is a gender.
