Rising tensions between the Philippines and China have raised questions about whether the United States is prepared to defend its allies from Chinese aggression, especially in disputed areas of the Pacific.
The United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty, first signed in 1951, that requires the countries to come together in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific.
But whether disputed reefs and territory in the South China Sea are included in the deal remains unclear, especially as the US military is already gearing up for a potential war, with the US willing to go to war with China over the Philippines. It is not always clear whether Conquer the Chinese military and Taiwan.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Manila in July and stressed that the United States would uphold its treaty obligations.
“It extends to armed attacks against Philippine military forces, including the coast guard, government vessels, and aircraft anywhere in the Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea.” he said.
Experts monitoring the escalation between the Philippines and China say the United States has become more clear since the Trump administration that it will defend its allies in a pinch, but Beijing is increasingly pushing it beyond theory. I agree with what you are doing.
“It's only a matter of time before China escalates to the point where it actually kills U.S. allies in the region,” said Markus Gallaskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. “China's approach has been very gradual, deliberately trying to make it difficult to clearly define the points where a stronger response is needed.”
He continued: “There is a very real risk that there could be a significant escalation, but China is not going to make it easy or clear for us.”
In recent months, Chinese fishing boats have been accused of ramming Philippine ships and attacking Filipino sailors with water cannons and, in some cases, machetes.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Chinese threat is growing in a wide range of areas. Bloomberg interview At the beginning of this year.
“Given the growing threat, we must do more to protect our territory,” he said.
Washington will be reluctant to start a potentially brutal war with China, which boasts a larger navy than the United States and is closely intertwined with the U.S. economy, at least in the short term.
Geoffrey O'Daniel, director of maritime programs at the Pacific Forum, said there were already “big questions” about whether the U.S. would protect Taiwan, especially as debate rages among Republicans in Washington over support for Ukraine. “There are question marks,” he said.
“If we are talking about Taiwan, a democratic country with a population of 23 million people, what makes the Philippines believe that the United States would be willing to die for an island or a rock on an island?” he said. I did.
How domestic politics could influence U.S. intervention, including if a crisis erupts under a potential second administration of former President Donald Trump, who is cautious about defending U.S. allies such as Ukraine. It's unknown.
But Republicans and Democrats alike have been hawkish on China, and Trump's former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has for the first time made clear that the United States will protect the Philippines anywhere in the Pacific.
“There are strong elements of China hawks among President Trump's advisers,” said David Maxwell, deputy director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Strategy. “It's going to have a different weight to China's malign activity in the Philippines than it does to Russia and Ukraine. … I think there's a willingness to stand up to China.”
China claims most of the South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling being rejected. It has conflicts with several countries in the Pacific, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, but its invasion of the Philippines has caused the most concern in recent years.
Maxwell said the potential for miscalculation between the Philippines and China is “much greater than the miscalculation between China and Taiwan” and stressed the need for stronger deterrence, adding that the Biden administration will He claimed that he had failed to do so.
“Unfortunately, my criticism of this administration is that the first directive for any national security and foreign policy is to prevent escalation.” “China is taking note of our intent to prevent escalation.” [and that] In fact, they are given a lot of room to move, flexibility, and freedom of action. ”
The United States has accused China of aggression in each skirmish with the Philippines, but has so far decided not to intervene.
Still, there is a growing risk that China, under authoritarian leader Xi Jinping, will continue its gray zone warfare tactics aimed at coercing the Philippines and controlling the South China Sea.
Pacific Forum's Ordaniel said China is “pushing the envelope” with gray zone tactics “until at some point it becomes ubiquitous.” He asserted that it is important for both the Philippines and the United States to sit down and discuss ways to increase deterrence.
“The Philippines is not using its alliance with the United States to increase deterrence, and the United States is not strong enough to say to the Philippines, 'Hey, the credibility of our alliance is at risk,'” he said. said.
“The response was not sufficient.” [and] With essentially no punishment, China will continue to push the envelope. ”
Mr. Ordaniel pointed to the need for a U.S. naval escort and called on the United States to step up diplomatic and military efforts to stop China's increasing aggression in the South China Sea.
China and the Philippines are primarily at loggerheads over three disputed reefs in the South China Sea. Second Thomas Shoal, Sabina Shoal and Scarborough Shoal were the sites of Tuesday's attacks, the latter where the Chinese Coast Guard sprayed Philippine boats with water. cannon. China captured Scarborough Shoal in 2012, but it remains a flashpoint in the conflict.
blinken busy Thursday in laosThe United States “remains concerned about China's increasingly dangerous and illegal actions in the South China Sea and East China Sea, which are causing injury to people and damage to ships,” and “violates commitments to peaceful resolution of disputes.” said.
The heaviest fighting broke out at Second Thomas Shoal as the Philippines reinforced the Sierra Madre, which ran aground in 1999 and was being used as a supply base to enforce Manila's claim to the reef.
China is attempting to thwart resupply missions to the Sierra Madre by intercepting and harassing ships with ramming drills, water cannons, and laser pointers, among other non-lethal weapons.
However, in the June 17 clash, Chinese troops rammed and boarded the two ships and seized weapons from the Filipino sailors. The Chinese attackers also attacked the ship and its crew with machetes during the skirmish, resulting in one Filipino sailor losing a thumb.
About a month later, the two countries reached an agreement allowing the Philippines to supply the ship under Chinese supervision.
Benjamin Brandin, network coordinator for the Yokosuka Asia-Pacific Research Council, said the agreement was concerning.
“This just legitimizes the very claims that China has against its neighbors,” he said. “This is a short-term solution to avoid conflict in the short term, but it doesn't solve anything.”
Although tensions have eased at Second Thomas Shoal, tensions remain high at Sabina Shoal, with Manila and China exchanging accusations of ramming each other's ships.
During the September standoff, the Philippines withdrew its detention of the coast guard vessel Teresa Magbanua at Sabina Reef due to concerns that China would build up resources in the area. China had about 200 ships waiting in the Spratly Islands, where it maintains part of a vast artificial island military base, before the Philippines chased them away.
The United States has offered to help provide military protection for the Philippines in the South China Sea, but Manila is increasingly seeking to resolve the issue on its own.
Brandin said he supports the Philippines requesting assistance from Washington only in dire situations.
“It is important that we continue to request assistance from the United States in the event of an extremely tense situation where the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard are overwhelmed and unable to respond, or where there are actual casualties,” he said. said.
He also said that “the United States is not necessarily in a strong position” in the Indo-Pacific region, as the Navy has struggled to keep up with China's massive naval power and has not fully directed resources and forces to Asia to counter it. “This is not the case,” he said. Beijing.
While there are fears of escalation, experts say the China-Philippines conflict is likely to erupt at the same time as the Taiwan scenario.
The United States has nine bases across the Philippines, including four bases announced last year on Luzon Island, about 300 miles from Taiwan. U.S. forces are conducting temporary and rotating operations in the Philippines.
But the base and its proximity to Taiwan make the Philippines a key ally, along with Japan and South Korea, in the event of war against the autonomous island nation, which China has historically considered part of the mainland and is preparing for. . Its forces are ready to attack or force potentially in 2027.
Atlantic Council Millennium Fellow Alp Sevimlisoy said China aims to “build multiple fronts with Taiwan.”
“We're counting on the fact that we can simultaneously impose a blockade on Taiwan and take advantage of moments of escalation and flashpoints in conflict with key U.S. allies,” he said. “If you just use it [the strategy] Even if it acts as a smokescreen for the broader Taiwan conflict, it makes it even more difficult for us to counter the conflict. ”
