Biden administration decision makers It's scary Israel's retaliation against Iran will draw the United States into a growing conflict in the Middle East. While Israel continues to consider its options, Netanyahu's government continues to make threats suggesting large-scale retaliation is being considered.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “Our attacks will be powerful, precise and above all surprising.'' said. “They won't understand what happened or how it happened.”
Former Middle East envoy David Satterfield echoed the concerns of many in the Biden administration. told Politico“What can Israel do on its own without attracting the United States?”
However, there is a risk that tangle (also called) trap and chain gang) is exaggerated. A great power like the United States could use several methods to avoid becoming drawn into a war in which it only partially shared the interests of its allies. This includes using alliances as tools of control, exploiting loopholes in alliance “contracts,” and distancing themselves from customers who tolerate war-prone risks.
Here's how the Biden administration will use these tools to avoid conflict with Iran.
president biden said the US will Not supported Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. However, some organizations, such as the Atlantic Council, Matthew KroenigSince Iran has shortened the deadline for nuclear fission to one to two weeks and there appears to be no diplomatic solution in sight, Israel could use its “escalation advantage” by attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. They argue that it should be used.
Entanglement refers to a situation where a state with only partial interests at stake is drawn into an ally's fight. It is one of two pathologies in international politics. allianceThe other is buck-passing, in which a state refuses to engage in balancing a threat in the hope that another great power will assume responsibility.
Biden has broad discretion to prevent Israel from attacking Iran. Because without US help, Israel can destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and energy facilities. limited.
Several factors prevent Israel from eliminating Iran's nuclear program in the same way it attacked Iraq in 1981. and in syria These include intensity gradients, fuel, the loss of Iranian air defense capabilities, Israel's lack of long-range bombers, and the fact that Natanz and Fordow are buried deep underground and therefore difficult to bomb.
Biden Administration's Attempts to Limit Israel's Escalation of War –hug bibi strategy” — so far almost failed. This does not mean the United States has no options. To avoid being drawn into a cascading conflict with Iran, Biden may use the alliance with Israel as a control tool.
The US has done this before. During the Cold War, the United States exploited loopholes in alliance contracts. Taiwan and South Korea This is to prevent the US from being drawn into a war with China. The alliance between the United States and Israel is ambiguous and is based on the following commitments by the President of the United States: John F. Kennedy in 1962. The United States has not made any commitments like NATO Article 5 to Israel.
The United States could tell Israel that if it attacks Iran, the United States rejects such an attack. military aid This information was obtained while fending off an Iranian attack in early October. The United States deployed two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and fired 12 interceptors at Iranian missiles.
Mr. Biden may threaten economic sanctions to apply additional pressure. This is not unprecedented. That's recently sanctioned more than a dozen Israelis The State Department said it has committed violence against Palestinians and is an obstacle to peace. During the Suez crisis in February 1957, Eisenhower threatened It would withhold $100 million in aid annually unless Israel completely withdraws from the Sinai Peninsula. Within a month, Israel withdrew its troops.
Biden could steer the United States away from Israel in case war escalates by extracting the following pages: saudi arabia We have created a handbook and are reaching out to Iran. The United States could publicly or through third parties notify the Iranian people that attacks on U.S. forces and facilities are unacceptable. However, the United States could emphasize its distance from Israel by refusing to cooperate with its military or combatants. The US may raise the amount by reissuing Gerald Ford Threat in 1975 Reconsider the alliance between the US and Israel.
Finally, if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, the Biden administration could follow in the footsteps of post-Osirak Ronald Reagan.
Reagan had Ambassador to the United Nations Jeanne Kirkpatrick. talk with He assisted the Iraqi side in drafting a Security Council resolution condemning the Osirak attack. If Prime Minister Netanyahu presses ahead with attacks on Iran's nuclear and oil facilities, the United States could draft a similar condemnation resolution and include Iran through a third party such as Oman.
Critics may say that abandoning Israel in such a way would undermine U.S. confidence in other allies and embolden America's adversaries. however, little empirical evidence To support this idea.
In some cases, reckless disloyalty to one ally may be welcomed by other allies. America's Persian Gulf allies may consider military aid and lifting sanctions a prudent move if it helps protect them from Iranian and Houthi counterattacks.
To prevent the United States from becoming drawn into an Israeli-Iranian war, the Biden administration could use its influence to limit Israeli retaliation through sanctions and denial of military aid. If hostilities break out, the United States could distance itself from Israel by threatening to review relations and even work with Tehran to condemn such attacks.
Albert B. Wolf is a Global Fellow at Habib University.
