On Thursday night, the Saints host the Broncos in a battle of rookie quarterbacks.
Denver's Bo Nix will travel to face New Orleans' Spencer Rattler, who made his NFL debut last week.
This game also marks the return of head coach Sean Payton to face his former team. Payton coached the Saints for 15 years from 2006 to 2021.
Due to injuries to a team that was weak at home, this game is slowly drawing closer to road favorite Denver.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and see where there's value.
Broncos vs. Saints odds
| team | spread | money line | over/under |
|---|---|---|---|
| broncos | -3 (-102) | -148 | o37 (-110) |
| saint | +3 (-118) | +124 | u37 (-110) |
When the Broncos have the ball
Knicks got off to a rocky start in his rookie season, finishing 34th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE, a composite statistic that measures passing efficiency.
Denver's offensive line has excelled in pass protection, ranking No. 1 in pass block win percentage, but the Broncos have struggled to find consistent pass-catching options.
Payton hinted that rookies Troy Franklin and DeVaughn Vere will get more work going forward.
The Saints' defense looked impressive early in the season, but it has started to fall apart in recent weeks, dropping to 14th in DVOA.
A significant cause was the team's inability to generate push up front.
According to ESPN, the Saints rank 26th in pass rush win percentage and 32nd in run stop win percentage. They also allow the third-most yards to contact per attempt, according to fantasy point data.
when the saints have the ball
Down to Down, Rattler struggled in place of the injured Derek Carr. Of the 39 quarterbacks with 50 or more dropbacks this season, he ranks last in combined EPA and CPOE.
New Orleans scored 27 points last week in a competitive environment with 138 plays, but it wasn't an efficient game. The Saints finished with a 39% early down percentage, which would rank them 28th in the NFL for the season overall.
It won't be any easier for Rattler this week against a Broncos pass defense that ranks seventh in DVOA.
Denver will be without Patrick Surtain II, who suffered a concussion Sunday, but cornerbacks Riley Moss and Jaquan McMillan are having impressive seasons.
The Broncos, who have the highest batting average in the NFL, will be heading home with pressure against a New Orleans offensive line that ranks 31st in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus.
The Saints are hurting their interior offensive line with Cesar Ruiz out, Lucas Patrick questionable, and Eric McCoy on IR. This could be a big problem for defensive tackle Zach Allen, who leads the league in pass rush win percentage.
The Saints will also be without wide receivers Chris Olabe (concussion) and Rashid Shahid (knee), while running back Alvin Kamara is still battling multiple ailments.
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Broncos vs. Saints picks
Even if Surtain isn't active Thursday, it's hard to imagine Rattler moving the ball against Denver's defense with much success.
The Saints are without all three starters on the inside offensive line and their top two wide receivers.
Rather than betting on the Knicks as road favorites in prime time, bet on New Orleans' offense to weaken and the team to score less than 17.5 points total.
Best bet: Saints under 17.5 points (-122, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He gained 84.5 units across two sports for an ROI of 6.27%.
