With less than 20 days until the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing her campaign hit a wall.
Current polls show former President Donald Trump leading in nearly every battleground state, leaving Harris with no chance of winning enough electoral votes to become president. Although Harris remains the favorite to win the popular vote, poll tracking from RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows Trump winning in every battleground state. Trump appears to be the favorite to win wisconsin, michigan, nevada and pennsylvania The difference is less than 1 percent.
more: https://t.co/mw4omqc2Wp pic.twitter.com/4yv7rl8O0j
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) October 18, 2024
RCP averageTrump leads Harris by 1.1 percentage points in Georgia. East Carolina University Survey Research Center show Trump gains 3 points in Georgia, Quinnipiac poll shows him in favor win About 7 points difference.
Arizona looks even more favorable to Trump. His RCP average at Arizona State give He had a 1.4 point advantage in November. Recent New York Times/Siena Poll show He leads by 5 points. CBS News I lead him by 3 points. trafalgar and The Hill/Emerson Opinion polls show Trump winning Arizona by about 2 points.
ABC's election prediction program FiveThirtyEight show Trump also won in states previously considered battleground states, such as Georgia and Arizona. Still, ABC Election College's interactive map shows five swing states as swing states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. However, Nate Silver, an American statistician and creator of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast, reported On Friday, Substack said Trump was likely to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the electoral college.
Today's update. Harris' lead in national polls has fallen from a peak of 3.5 points on October 2 to 2.3 points. The race is still very close, but we're at a point where we can be pretty confident that this is real action and not statistical noise.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/Y9xdb3ixeI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 18, 2024
“Does Donald Trump have momentum in his campaign? Well, that's a somewhat complicated question, depending on what the word 'momentum' technically means,” Silver wrote. There is. “But he exceeded our expectations and had another good day today after narrowing his lead over Harris in national polls to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on October 2. .”
his model show Mr. Trump led in North Carolina, and the difference between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris was less than 1 point in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. silver give Trump has a 51.6% chance of becoming president, compared to Harris' 48.1%. In early October, he showed Harris leading Trump in exact percentages.
#new Nate Silver 2024 Election Prediction Update
🔴Trump: 51.6% [+3.9]
🔵Harris: 48.1% [-3.9][+/- over the last week] pic.twitter.com/fakwCWWn1y
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 18, 2024
After weeks of seemingly stalling in mainstream opinion polls, Trump's campaign is on the rise. Meanwhile, Harris' numbers are only getting worse. Despite the recent campaign media onslaught, connecting with voters who still think President Trump is the better candidate to address the issues that matter most to them, such as the economy and illegal immigration. is struggling with It's as if the more voters see and hear about her, the less they like her.
