Former President Trump on Sunday surpassed Vice President Harris for the first time in Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill's election forecast for this term.
As of Sunday, the model predicted Mr. Trump had a 52% chance of winning the presidency, and Ms. Harris had a 42% chance.
Election forecasts from late August put Harris' chance of winning at around 54-56% and Trump's chance at around 44-46%. However, in early October, these dynamics began to change, with election forecasts predicting that both candidates' chances of winning approached 50 percent.
On Oct. 17, the model predicted that both candidates had an equal chance of winning next month, and on Oct. 20, Trump had the lead.
The change in election forecasts coincides with improved voting averages for Republican candidates in battleground states Wisconsin and Michigan, which had previously tilted slightly toward Harris. Trump already had a slight advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Of the seven swing states that are expected to determine the outcome of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is the only state where polling averages still support Harris.
Nevertheless, the race remains very close, with polls in all seven states still within the margin of error, according to election forecasts, and typical polling inaccuracies could swing the outcome to either side. This means that there is a possibility of changing direction.
These states are expected to play a decisive role in determining which candidates reach the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris have a clear lead in the states where they can secure that number.
