Democrats were hoping it was 2012 all over again.
As the year began, Democrats realized that the economic situation posed a major challenge to President Joe Biden's hopes of winning a second term. American confidence in the economy is at a level associated with incumbent defeat, and the survey shows that the economy is a top priority for many voters.
Still, Democrats were hopeful that economic sentiment would improve as the year progressed and that that improvement would focus public attention on issues seen as the party's and its candidates' strengths.
It's happened before— An election campaign with Mr. Biden is planned.. At the beginning of 2012, the Gallup Economic Confidence Index was in deep negative territory at -22. Additionally, the economy was a top priority for voters.
Public dissatisfaction with the economy was rooted in fundamentals. Although the economy grew by a solid 3% in the final quarter of 2011, public interest remained low. Breaking away from disappointing results earlier this year As a result, full-year growth was only 1.5%. The unemployment rate was 8.3%, down from a peak of 9.9% at the end of the Bush administration, but above the historical normal for recovery periods.
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden wait in the Blue Room of the White House before giving a speech in March 2010 (Official White House Photo: Pete Souza)
Many Democrats argued that it simply reflected negative public opinion about the economy. financial crisis hangover In addition to winning the midterm elections, Republicans hoped to capitalize on public discontent by taking back the White House.
Although growth slowed in 2012, with the economy growing at less than 2% annually in the first half of the year, the employment situation improved. The unemployment rate had fallen to 7.7 percent by November 2012. In the last Gallup poll before the election, Confidence index rose to near neutralthe official reading was -1, and Obama won reelection.
Inflation has created a lasting bad feeling about the economy.
Many Democrats predicted and expected the same thing to happen this year. As a top economic priority, Inflation has replaced employment.And inflation was coming down from its peak in 2022. Recession risk has significantly recededand the Fed has signaled that it will hold off on cutting interest rates.
This time it was different. of Economic confidence index falls again to -26is exactly where it was in January and below its recent high of -20 in March. 63% of Americans say the economy is worsening, again exactly the same as in January.
Latest new york timeIn the Siena poll Only 3% of voters described the economy as “excellent.” Another 21% said the economy was in “good shape.” 28% chose a negative rating of “fair” and a whopping 47% said “poor.”
While it's tempting to attribute these poor polling numbers on the economy to partisanship, the numbers don't really support that idea. Republicans are highly dissatisfied with the economy, with 72% saying they see the economy in bad shape. but Half of independents also say they are poorand 30 percent say it's fair. Meanwhile, just 5 percent of Democrats and just 2 percent of independents say the economy is great.
moreover, Percentage of Americans say the economy is the most important issue The level of confrontation with the state has increased considerably. According to Gallup, 34% of Americans ranked the economy as their top issue in January. Currently, 43% do so.
When asked how Biden's policies have affected them personally, only 22% of Americans say they have helped. Meanwhile, 42% said they felt hurt. President Trump's numbers are on the contrary. 42% said they were helped And 30% said they were hurt.
of new york times/The Siena poll asked voters how much they thought America's “economic system” needed to change. Few (2%) say no changes are needed. 26% say some changes are needed. 59% think major changes are needed, and 11% think it should be abolished completely. If you are an incumbent political party, you don't want to have that kind of sentiment abroad. And, interestingly, Republicans are more likely to be radicalizedTwelve percent want to destroy the system, more than Democrats, and 8% say things need to be broken.
The Biden and Harris campaigns believed that sentiment around the economy would improve this year and usurp Trump's top issue. It's not happening, that's why Democrats are in such a panic Two weeks left until the election.
