With Election Day just two weeks away, Senate Democrats face an increasingly difficult road to maintaining their majority in the Senate as races heat up in key battleground states.
The path to 51 seats will always be a long one for Democrats, who face a difficult Senate map with multiple incumbents in solidly Republican areas.
But Democrats are now also dealing with Republican candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where they are rapidly closing the gap. This month, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, changed both races from “lean Democrats” to “booties.” All of the “blue wall” states, along with Michigan, fell into the “toss-up” category.
This puts pressure on the party to hold the fort in the final stages.
“This is by no means easy,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday. time. “
“This is an unpredictable world. You never know what's going to happen,” said Bennett, who previously served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Democrats have long recognized the problems with the map. Republicans only need to pick up two more seats to take control of the House, and the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (Idaho, Virginia) is certain to move the state into the Republican column.
All four seats that Cook rated as “toss-ups” are held by Democrats. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is struggling to hold on to his seat in a state that has trended red in recent years, and Cook announced last month that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term. He shifted the fighting state of Montana into a “leaning” direction. It's the Republican Party. ”
Tightening voting requirements for open seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are exacerbating these problems.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by just 1.8 points after leading by about 5 points a month ago, according to Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill. There is. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick by 3.3 points, up from a 10-point lead in August, according to the average DDHQ/The Hill poll. Shrunk.
Strategists on both sides say Republicans are closing the number gap with former President Trump, who is expected to lead all parties. This has given Republicans a chance to stay afloat, but they warn there are some differences by race.
“We have momentum.” [in Wisconsin and Michigan] …And we are in a much stronger position than we were six months ago,” one Republican operative said. “Pennsylvania is different. It's a really close race. It's hard to know. Casey's right there. He doesn't look like a liberal, and he's been there for a long time.”
A Democratic operative involved in the Senate race told The Hill that Republicans were successful in sending members of their support base home.
“In the spring and summer, Republican-leaning men were telling pollsters they were independents, but they're Republicans and they're coming back to being Republicans. Republican ad campaigns are That's what they set out to do, and they succeeded in doing that,” the operative said, pointing to issues around transgender rights and immigration.
“Republicans aren't trying to disenfranchise floating voters. They're trying to strengthen their base and ensure that people who are on the fence about voting for Trump or not voting for Trump. . [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] Or you can just not show up at all and vote for Trump,” the operative continued.
Pennsylvania had the latest outbreak. Recent surveys show a trend toward tightening.McCormick finally came within shouting distance of Trump after months of struggling to get some of the former president's supporters to fully support him.
Political commentators also say Mr. Casey's recent ads touting his agreement with the former president on trade and tariffs are a sign of changing tides in the Keystone State. . But some Democrats thought it would be wise to serve a third term in the Senate, especially given the current situation.
“I don't care who's kicking you in the shin,” former Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney said of the ad. I'm doing it,” he said. as a way to communicate with undecided voters. ”
Baldwin has something similar Running in her state.
A win in any of the three battleground states would be seen as crucial for Republicans this term, with either Montana or Ohio likely deciding the majority.
Republican Tim Sheehy remains favored to defeat Tester in Montana, and Democrats acknowledge there is a steep road to victory.
In Ohio, Brown is locked in a tough battle with Republican Bernie Moreno, who has been monitoring helium for the past month. in public And Republican polls show him closing in on a third term in the Senate.
Facing these thorny issues on the map, Democrats are giving themselves a chance to sway in Republican-held areas. Topping that list is Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is living the progressive dream and trying to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and Sen. Deb Fischer. (Republicans) are suddenly in a state of contention in Nebraska. Independent Dan Osborne.
The race in Nebraska is particularly frustrating for some Republican operatives. That's especially after the Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), announced it would spend $3 million in the final round to back Fischer. . He is a member of McConnell's leadership team.
“If Trump is going to comfortably win your state, there shouldn't be a need for a bailout,” said another Republican operative, noting that David McCormick, Eric Hovde, or former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-P.C.) , Michigan) pointed out that one of them would bail out. profit from that expenditure. “That's just laziness.”
But the chances of winning either state remain very slim, placing the onus on Democrats to maintain their positions in the battleground states.
Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, said Democrats are in a position to do just that.
“Senate Democrats are in the strongest possible position to protect their majority. We have better candidates, we have stronger campaigns, and our candidates will appeal to voters of all political persuasions.” “Senate Republicans' flawed nominees are hurting the overall Senate's prospects, and while the NRSC is cutting back on advertising, Senate Democrats are on the offensive.” he said in a statement.
Meanwhile, strategists expect the situation to continue for the foreseeable future.
“The presidential election is going to be very close in all three states, polarization continues, team jerseys are being thrown around with politics right now, so it's surprising that things like this are getting so tense. That's not true,” said a second Republican operative. .
“At the end of the day, you have to ask one of these three things. [candidates] “If any of them had Trump, they would run before him,” they continued, saying that was unlikely. “And the question is, how far can they actually go? … I would be surprised if any of them won. I wouldn't be surprised if all three were close.”
Democrats agree.
A Democratic Party operative involved in the Senate race said, “There is a winning scenario for the Democratic Party not only if Harris wins, but also if Trump wins.'' “These Republicans can’t win unless Trump wins.”
