The outcome of the presidential election could hinge on which candidate convinces Americans that they are the best choice to navigate the economy.
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are pursuing fundamentally different strategies on the economy, with the economy becoming the top issue for voters in Tuesday's general election after three years of high inflation and the economic crisis that preceded it. There is.
Trump, who leads on the economy in most polls, is going all in on the issue, proposing a series of individual tax cuts and general tariffs that could shake up the world of international trade.
Harris has made significant progress on the issue since becoming the top Democratic presidential candidate in July, narrowing the gap between Trump and Biden. The vice president even talked about a de facto alliance on who is best suited to manage the economy. marist vote Pennsylvania, a battleground state potentially crucial to either candidate's path to victory.
Some of Harris' strength on the economy can be attributed to Biden's withdrawal from the race, but she also has major issues such as housing affordability, health care costs and price-fixing allegations. Focused as an economic focus. He also said he is moderate on some of Biden's positions on corporate taxes and is open to working with businesses.
Here, let's take a closer look at the messages being sent out by the election campaign about what could be the deciding factor in the general election.
President Trump likes tariffs because they 'send a message'
President Trump has promised to impose general tariffs on imported goods at varying levels from 10% to 20%.
He also picked up the trade war he waged against one of America's major trading partners during his first term, raising tariffs on China to a whopping 60%. Mr. Biden left nearly all of President Trump's tariffs on China in place, but earlier this year he imposed his own import tariffs on electric vehicles and other products.
Political strategists told The Hill that tariffs are attractive to Trump as a campaign strategy for a variety of reasons. These have long been the centerpiece of President Trump's anti-establishment economic agenda and can be implemented independently of Congress.
“There are multiple reasons to love Trump.” [tariffs]” Stephen Mayrow, managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, told The Hill.
“That gives him a strong feeling. It's something he can do unilaterally as CEO, rather than needing Congress or coordinating with other people in Washington. As I said, it's easy to get your message across because you have a clear target and it's a headline.”
President Trump is also trying to sell the tariffs with a nostalgic appeal that harks back to a bygone era of American prosperity. Economists warn that a simple return to historical economic conditions is probably not realistic.
“President Trump is trying hard to take America back to 1950, but it will never go back,” labor economist Kathryn Ann Edwards told The Hill. “Do you want manufacturing jobs back? All we need is tariffs on China – that's fiction.”
“He only looks to the past, and that's what's so appealing to people. Even nostalgia for a pre-pandemic time, he's building on that,” Edwards said.
Harris makes affordability a top priority
Biden's economic approval ratings have slumped during his term due to weak inflation, despite frequent upside surprises in national economic indicators.
Biden's economic support shows, according to a Gallup poll that identified the issue as Biden's “weakest” issue, even after the economy avoided recession predictions and the 2023 jobs report beat expectations. The rate fell to 32 percent earlier this year.
Harris dominated on this issue almost immediately after taking over the ticket from Biden, narrowing the gap between Biden and Trump by 6 points in a September Marist poll and by 10 points in a Fox News poll.
Harris aimed to maintain this momentum by focusing on household spending. She proposed a formal ban on food price gouging, which could include strict price controls, as part of a response to huge corporate profits post-pandemic.
She is centering the issue of affordability with a range of proposals that span housing, prescription drug costs, health care and medical debt. She also proposes expanding the child tax credit, which has lifted millions of American children out of poverty during the pandemic.
Harris also proposed raising capital gains taxes to 28% for people making more than $1 million a year, a significant reduction from President Biden's proposal of 44.6% to appeal to more moderate voters. It represents the intended shift to the right.
Harris has made progress and is in a relatively comfortable economic position compared to Biden, allowing her to pursue other priorities in her campaign's home turf.
“from [Harris’s] “The way she looks at it, she's not looking to win on the economy, but to fight to a tie and then let other issues, like abortion, become the deciding factor,” Mayrow said. .
A strong recovery from the pandemic is a double-edged sword for Democrats
While the economic relief measures enacted in response to the pandemic are likely to avert a deep recession and achieve the “soft landing” the Federal Reserve has long desired, inflation is on the parade of economic recovery. rained down on them, depriving Democrats of an opportunity. To be proud.
“This is an opportunity that many economists said wouldn't come to the U.S. economy in four years, and yet it's right in front of us. It's amazing that people are experiencing “We can't erase the financial pain we suffered or say, 'In fact, things could have been much worse,'” Edwards said.
Rather than trying to praise the Biden administration's policy response to the pandemic, Harris' strategy has been to speak frankly about costs and spending and emphasize the importance of further cuts.
“What Mr. Kamala and the Democrats have done is speak to people in real terms rather than high-minded policy language, and instead of trying to convince people that the economy is great, we are still fighting to keep prices down. Just say you're there,” said communications strategist Ashley Woolheater. the progressive and former aide to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told The Hill.
