A mysterious trader who only introduced himself as having been secured by Theo.
Estimation He made a profit of $48 million by betting that the 45th president would be elected the 47th president.
A French trader with a background in financial services dubbed the “Trump Whale” used four anonymous accounts (Theo4, Fredi9999, Princess Caro and Micheon) on the cryptocurrency-based betting site Polymarket to predict a victory for President Donald Trump. It is reported that he bet on As with most battleground states, the popular vote is similar.
Mr. Teo suspected that establishment pollsters and mainstream media were overestimating support for Kamala Harris and once again underestimating support for Mr. Trump.
Theo
said Visegrad on the 24th, before voting day: “The polls are completely different from the predicted odds of the polls'' prediction market. Calculate something completely different. One is to calculate how the people intend to vote. The other is where real people, with real money, bet on who they believe will be the winner. ”
The Frenchman said in August that “the media began to realize that they were making the same mistakes they made in underestimating Trump's vote in 2016 and 2020. Why? Because, again, shy Trump “This is because we are underestimating the effect of his vote,” he said.
princeton election consortium
shownFor example, in November 2016, it was predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of defeating Trump, and that she would win 312 electoral votes. FiveThirtyEight, then Nate Silver's voting outfit, proposed Clinton had a 71.4% chance of winning. vote Polls conducted that year by the Washington Post, ABC News, Google Consumer Research, Ipsos, YouGov, Fox News, and Selzer & Company were similarly off the mark, all showing Clinton with a several-point lead. .
Teo points out that polls such as the New York Times and Siena College are making the same mistakes, and in one case a poll showing Harris leading by 2 percentage points in North Carolina actually turned out to be wrong. pointed out that “9.3 percent was not representative.'' point. ”
“Don't trust the mainstream media.”
Before voting day, Theo
said A Wall Street Journal reporter was interested in a trader's huge bet that the RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump leading polls in battleground states in the last presidential election, which was particularly close. had.
Aware of another close race in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, traders factored in the “shy Trump voter effect” that mainstream polling organizations apparently did not take into account. found that Republican support was higher. You have a 90% chance of winning the day and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote.
The Frenchman took the additional step of commissioning a study from a major pollster to measure the “neighbor effect” in the United States. Teo said that while the shy voter effect undermines the reliability of regular opinion polls, neighborhood polls that ask respondents which candidates their neighbors are likely to support can better inform voters' preferences. He pointed out that it would be a good demonstration.
Teo told the Journal that the results were “surprisingly in Trump's favor!”
“Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured neighborhood effects,” he added.
bloomberg
shown Polymarket bets on which candidate will become the 47th president generated nearly $3.7 billion in trading volume this cycle.
Polymarket released a statement Wednesday morning.
pay attention“Last night, Polymarket proved its market wisdom beyond polls, media, and pundits. Polymarket consistently and accurately predicted outcomes well ahead of all three, and the We have demonstrated the power of high-volume, highly liquid prediction markets.” ”
The company later shared a screenshot of a “headline from the October 22 issue of Time magazine.”Don't trust political prediction markets,” Leave a comment“Don't trust the mainstream media.”
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