In 2005, Detroit drafted a 22-year-old pitching prospect named Justin Verlander. He started two games, but didn't do particularly well. The following season, he began a streak of nine consecutive years of starting at least 30 games. In December 2009, the Tigers traded for another pitching prospect, Max Scherzer, who had just completed his first full season in the majors. From 2009 to 2023, they were some of the most prominent pitchers in baseball, but last year marked the end of an era. When they started, we didn't know it yet, but they were at the beginning of a new era, and now that their careers are coming to an end, they're starting to think about what it means to be a modern starting pitcher. It's a story of: fewer innings, more strikeouts, and no shots. With 300 wins.
This season marked the first time Scherzer hasn't pitched more than 100 innings in a full season, non-COVID-19, since his debut in 2008. His ability to stay healthy and productive for 15 years is incredible in an era when people think of him as Tommy John. At some point, every pitcher will undergo surgery. Verlander is much the same, but he acquired TJ in 2020 and ended up sitting out the entire 2021 season. Otherwise, he would take the mound every year and pitch high innings. Both have been consistently good throughout this time. Scherzer dipped into the 2 fWAR range a few times, but mostly in the 4-7 wins above replacement range. Verlander never fell below 3 fWAR since establishing that level in 2007, i.e. until 2024. The 2024 season was the first in a decade and a half in which these two pitchers were unable to play important roles due to injuries and poor performance.
Over the past 15 years, they have garnered many statistics and accolades for more than just a war. Both have won three Cy Young Awards. Verlander was one of three players to also win MVP. They have led the league in wins, starts, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, etc. many times. And both have accumulated more black and gray ink than the average Cooperstown pitcher. They are certain to be on the first Hall of Fame ballot. In the past, such pitchers were able to reach the 300-win mark, but that is no longer the case. The truth is, unless Verlander sticks around for a few more years and becomes extremely productive, a championship won't be that close.
Winning 300 games has always been the gold standard for the inner circle of Hall of Fame starters, but that standard no longer holds true. Only 24 pitchers have ever reached this milestone, the most recent being Randy Johnson in 2009, just as Max and Justin were beginning to establish themselves. There are four HOF-worthy pitchers who primarily existed in the post-big unit era: Verlander and Scherzer, as well as Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. Verlander was the only player to approach 300 points, and currently ranks 41st all-time with 262 points. The other three all scored over 200, but not by much.
Around 2015, starting pitchers began to be selected much earlier, and since then, relief pitchers have been pitching just over 30% of innings, but in recent years, this has gone down to around 42%. The league is also considering rules that could allow star players to play deeper into games. If we go back to the 1950s, the changes are even more pronounced. At the time, starting pitchers pitched nearly 80% of the innings in most seasons. Many of the best pitchers started nearly 40 games during the season. The aforementioned Randy Johnson never started more than 35 innings, and of the four best pitchers of this era, all except Kershaw, who led with 33 innings, had a best of 34 innings. It's much harder to win 300 games if you haven't pitched as many innings. Two reasons.
The main reason starting pitchers don't get as many wins anymore is because they simply don't qualify for one win. If he is pulled before the end of the fifth inning, he will not be awarded a win. For these good pitchers, that's usually not a problem. Max Scherzer didn't have a great 2023, but he still managed to get through at least five frames in 22 of his 27 starts. Even if you pitch very well, a percentage of that will be eroded because you've gotten through enough innings but your team leaves without a lead. Now comes the second problem. The sooner he leaves the game, the more time he will spend hitting in the bullpen. It's a simple calculation. If you average 6 innings over 30 starts, your bullpen will be pitching 90 innings in those games. If you give up 3 runs in 9 innings, the expected score after the starting pitcher finishes the game will be 30 points. That's what a good bullpen is all about, especially if it's the team's weakness. Scherzer allowed fewer than 75 runs during his Cy Young career, so 30 runs makes a big difference.
Scherzer and Verlander have led the league in innings pitched multiple times, with Max at 228.2 and Justin at 251. Barring the odd year like 1994 when the strike was shortened, 251 would not have topped both leagues several times. Twice throughout the 1900s. Even the most recent 300-win pitchers have each logged more than 4,000 innings, which pales in comparison to some of the previous members of the 300-win club. All four players nearing retirement are below 3,500 points, but Kershaw will probably fall short of 3,000 points.
None of this deprives them of benefits. They should all be in the Hall because they're all great pitchers. Just being the first group of new starting pitchers will require a change in the way starting pitchers are evaluated. They dominate older pitchers in strikeout rate. Scherzer's career K/9 rate is 10.65, which is better than Nolan Ryan in strikeouts or better. These modern top-end pitchers are still having great seasons. It's simply easier to compare using ERA+ or FIP- rather than simple wins or strikeouts. As baseball is currently constructed, it would take a very rare pitcher to become the next 300-win candidate, assuming Verlander doesn't return to being a perennial Cy Young candidate until age 45.
The next great starting pitcher has a long way to go to reach 300 wins. Once they all retire, Gerrit Cole will be the active leader. He has a record of 153 wins. He is also 34 years old and has been pitching in the majors for 12 years. It will be impossible for him to continue at the same pace for another 12 years. The next player on the list under the age of 35 is Aaron Nola, who has a paltry 104 wins. If he averages 20 shots a year for 10 years, he could make it by his age 41 season, but that's not impossible. The first player under 30 is 29-year-old Shane Bieber, who has just 62 wins. No other player currently in the majors comes close to that. Only one or two people may reach 200.
I don't know if this is a good or bad thing. That's the current state of baseball. The league clearly sees it as a problem, but I've yet to find a solution that doesn't feel at least a little bit absurd. Do you miss those epic playoff starts? Yes, we do. There's no better game than Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. Considering the intensity with which players throw and the number of injuries to pitchers, that seems unlikely. So I'm saying goodbye to that past and seeing Scherzer and Verlander as the harbingers of a new guardian of great starting pitchers. A new era is upon us.
