While there haven't been any upsets at the top of the polls, college football has definitely taken on a 2007 feel this season.
As we reach mid-November and programs like Army, Boise State, BYU, Indiana and SMU control their own national championship destinies, we acknowledge that we are in the midst of a strange season. The time has come.
So why not add another stick to the fire of chaos by helping your team fly far enough unnoticed to chop off the tops of trees?
Washington state enacts CFP (50/1, BetParx)
Before conference realignment rocked the sports world, Pullman, Wash., was already a sleepy outpost in the college football world.
Surrounded by national parks and a 4 ¹/₂ hour drive from the nearest major city, it's easy to see why people don't associate Washington state with famous places.
But the program has churned out three top-10 finishes over the past 27 years, including two trips to the Rose Bowl.
They'll never be confused with Georgia or Texas or Notre Dame, but the Cougars are far from a footnote in college football.
When it comes to betting, especially futures, there are two main camps: public teams and non-public teams. If you want to bet on the Cowboys, Lakers, Yankees, or Fighting Irish, you will pay a premium.
Oddsmakers know they can lower the public team's odds and still take action. Private teams don't get as much action from casual bettors, and as a result, sportsbooks are often content to hang generous or stale numbers on said teams in the futures market.
While Washington's numbers are generous, they're also as stale as week-old bread.
Let's get into the math.
Assuming a win out the wazoo, ESPN's playoff bracket projections give the Cougs a 13 percent chance of making it.
The implied probability of a 50/1 ticket currently on the market is 1.96%. I'm very confident that Wazzu can survive New Mexico State (SP+ 115th) and Oregon State (91st) on the road.
That would set up the final regular season game against a formidable Wyoming team in the Palouse. It would take a big upset on championship weekend to finish 11-1, but we're looking at a wild finish in early December.
The ACC, Big 12 and SEC could all be eliminated as contenders with Saturday's championship loss to an at-large contender for the second or third time this season.
The real problem for Was is Notre Dame and Army, who coincidentally play at Yankee Stadium in two weeks. If Ireland wins, they will certainly get a major bid.
Similarly, if Army upsets Notre Dame and takes over the lead, it could shut them out the wazoo and easily join Boise State in the top 12.
The ideal scenario up the wazoo would be for Army to pull off an upset against Notre Dame on Nov. 23, followed by a loss to the Cadets in the AAC title game.
Remember, Notre Dame already lost 5-4 at home to Northern Illinois, and Army's best two wins have come against ECU and North Texas.
Do you want to bet on college football?
How big of an impact would the Army vs. Notre Dame scenario have on the Cougs?My prediction is that the odds of the 11-1 wazoo advancing to the CFP would increase from 17% to 36% in that scenario. Masu.
At 36%, the fair price for the Cougs to acquire CFP would be +175 odd, which is far from their current long-term odds.
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, focusing on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots such as travel, breaks, and elevation changes.
